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Investeringsintresse i miljonprogram

Ljung, Pernilla LU and Manhem, Frida LU (2017) VFT920 20171
Real Estate Science
Abstract (Swedish)
Miljonprogramseran kallas den byggnadsperiod som sträcker sig från 1965-1974. Detta var en tid i svensk byggnadshistoria där storskalighet och effektivt byggande förespråkades. Under perioden uppfördes 1 005 578 bostäder i Sverige och idag består en fjärdedel av Sveriges bostadsbestånd av bebyggelse från 1960- och 70-talet. Den höga byggtakten under denna tidsperiod möjliggjordes genom att husen elementproducerades.

Definitionen av miljonprogramsområden i detta examensarbete syftar till bebyggelse uppförd i kluster mellan 1965-74.

Miljonprogramsområden och deras bebyggelse har kommit att bli omdebatterad. Områdena har i flertalet fall kommit att präglas av socioekonomisk segregation och negativt rykte. Bebyggelsen i dessa... (More)
Miljonprogramseran kallas den byggnadsperiod som sträcker sig från 1965-1974. Detta var en tid i svensk byggnadshistoria där storskalighet och effektivt byggande förespråkades. Under perioden uppfördes 1 005 578 bostäder i Sverige och idag består en fjärdedel av Sveriges bostadsbestånd av bebyggelse från 1960- och 70-talet. Den höga byggtakten under denna tidsperiod möjliggjordes genom att husen elementproducerades.

Definitionen av miljonprogramsområden i detta examensarbete syftar till bebyggelse uppförd i kluster mellan 1965-74.

Miljonprogramsområden och deras bebyggelse har kommit att bli omdebatterad. Områdena har i flertalet fall kommit att präglas av socioekonomisk segregation och negativt rykte. Bebyggelsen i dessa stadsdelar har blivit föremål för kritik gällande kvalitet och renoveringsbehov.

Idag har flertalet fastighetsbolag valt att göra stora investeringar i just miljonprogramsområden. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka vad det ökade investeringsintresset bottnar i och hur olika värdepåverkande faktorer skiljer sig åt mellan miljonprogram och övriga stadsdelar. Vidare syftas det till att i examensarbetet undersöka hur förtätningspotentialen i miljonprogram ser ut och om den påverkar investeringsintresset.

För att besvara dessa frågor har litteratur- och artikelstudier genomförts där relevant teori tagits fram och redovisats. 40 miljonprogram har valts ut för studien, 10 stycken i Malmö, 10 stycken i Göteborg och 20 stycken i Stor-Stockholm. Statistik över försålda bostadsrätter och hyresfastigheter har samlats in och sammanställts. Regressionsanalys har genomförts där prisutvecklingen över försålda bostadsrätter ställs mot värdepåverkande faktorer. Prisutvecklingen för bostadsrätter har också jämförts med nyproduktionskostnader. Hyresfastigheter som ingått i transaktion utgör underlag för prisutveckling för byggrätter på vilka flerbostadshus uppförts. Denna prisutveckling jämförs med markpriser vid markförvärv av icke-bebyggd mark. Vidare har intervjuer genomförts med representanter från fastighetsbolag och branschorganisationer för att ge en bild av hur fastighetsbranschen ser på dessa områden.

Det har visat sig att det rådande låga ränteläget påverkar investeringsintresset i miljonprogram. I dagsläget anses en investering i miljonprogram, trots låg betalningsvilja hos de boende, vara förmånligt jämfört investeringar i andra värdehandlingar där avkastningen är ännu lägre. Bostadsbristen i kombination med ökande markpriser och förtätnings- samt förädlingspotential är också påverkande faktorer till det ökade investeringsintresset. Det ges en optionsmöjlighet till fastighetsförvärvaren att uppföra ny bebyggelse i händelse av att betalningsviljan överskrider nyproduktionspriset. Betalningsviljan kan komma att öka då städerna växer. Miljonprogrammen kan komma att betraktas som mer centrala lägen i framtiden.

Miljonprogramsområden har vissa värdehöjande faktorer som stort engagemang bland de boende och tillgång till höga naturvärden. Dock är flertalet av studerade miljonprogramsområden i denna studie drabbade av inkomstsegregation, högre arbetslöshet, kriminalitet, lägre utbildningsnivå, sämre kollektivtrafik, bebyggelse i behov av upprustning och homogena upplåtelseformer. Det kommer enligt oss krävas stora sociala investeringar för att lyfta dessa områden.

Förtätningspotentialen i miljonprogrammen klassas av oss som god. Det finns tillgänglig icke-bebyggd yta som lämpar sig för förtätning. Miljonprogramsområden erbjuder också möjlighet till stadsdelsförtätning. (Less)
Abstract
During the period 1965-1974 Sweden underwent a major housing development program, collectively referred to in Sweden as Miljonprogramseran (the million program era). These years where characterized by the idea of building on a large and effective scale. During this period 1 005 578 various forms of housing where constructed, and today a quarter of Sweden’s housing consists of projects dating back to the 1960’s and the 1970’s. The rapid speed at which the construction moved forward was made possible by using prefabricated elements during construction.

In this thesis paper, Miljonprogramsområden (million program areas) refers to housing units built in concentrated areas during the period 1965-1974.

Today, these areas and the dwellings... (More)
During the period 1965-1974 Sweden underwent a major housing development program, collectively referred to in Sweden as Miljonprogramseran (the million program era). These years where characterized by the idea of building on a large and effective scale. During this period 1 005 578 various forms of housing where constructed, and today a quarter of Sweden’s housing consists of projects dating back to the 1960’s and the 1970’s. The rapid speed at which the construction moved forward was made possible by using prefabricated elements during construction.

In this thesis paper, Miljonprogramsområden (million program areas) refers to housing units built in concentrated areas during the period 1965-1974.

Today, these areas and the dwellings within them are a topic of debate. They have in many cases come to be characterized by social inequality, segregation and a bad reputation, and the housing in these areas has been criticized for both its quality and need of restoration.

At present, many real estate companies have made large investments in these areas. The purpose of this thesis paper is to find the cause of the increase in investment interest, and how value creating factors in the million program areas differ from other locations. Additionally, this thesis paper studies the effects of urban densification in these areas, and if it has any effect on perceived investment opportunities.

To answer these questions a literary study has been conducted, where relevant theories are presented. 40 different million program areas have been chosen for this study: 10 in Malmö, 10 in Gothenburg and 20 in the greater Stockholm area. Statistics describing the sales of condominiums and rental housing have been compiled for these areas. A regression analysis has been used where development in value of sold condominiums has been compared against value affecting factors. The pricing development has also been compared to the cost of developing new housing. Rental real estate, where the property has already been developed, that entered transactions has been the basis for understanding the value development of construction rights. These developments have been compared against the costs of acquiring land without any current housing on the property. Additionally, interviews have been conducted with companies and organizations in order to have an understanding of how the real estate business views these areas.

It turns out that the low interest rates at present have had an effect on investment incentives in the million program areas. At present an investment in these areas, despite the residents low WTP (willingness to pay), is seen as beneficial in comparison with other investments with lower expectations of return. The shortage of housing on the market in combination with rising land prices and potential for densification are also factors that contribute to the rise in investment interest. Real estate buyers are given the option to develop new housing, should the WTP exceed the cost of development. The WTP may well increase with growing city populations, which could see these areas eventually being regarded as centrally located.

The million program areas have several value increasing properties, such as strong community involvement and being in close proximity to nature. However, most of the studied areas in this thesis are burdened with income disparity, high unemployment rates, crime, lower levels of education, poor municipal traffic, housing in need of restoration and homogenous distribution of tenure. It is the conclusion of the authors that large social investments are needed to improve these areas.

The potential for densification is deemed as promising by the authors, with large quantities of undeveloped land being suitable for various infill projects. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Ljung, Pernilla LU and Manhem, Frida LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Investment interest in the Swedish million program
course
VFT920 20171
year
type
H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
subject
keywords
Miljonprogramsområden, Investeringsintresse, Förtätning, Värdepåverkande faktorer, Malmö, Göteborg, Stockholm
other publication id
ISRN/LUTVDG/TVLM/17/5397 SE
language
Swedish
id
8919950
date added to LUP
2017-07-31 09:20:23
date last changed
2017-07-31 09:20:23
@misc{8919950,
  abstract     = {During the period 1965-1974 Sweden underwent a major housing development program, collectively referred to in Sweden as Miljonprogramseran (the million program era). These years where characterized by the idea of building on a large and effective scale. During this period 1 005 578 various forms of housing where constructed, and today a quarter of Sweden’s housing consists of projects dating back to the 1960’s and the 1970’s. The rapid speed at which the construction moved forward was made possible by using prefabricated elements during construction.

In this thesis paper, Miljonprogramsområden (million program areas) refers to housing units built in concentrated areas during the period 1965-1974.

Today, these areas and the dwellings within them are a topic of debate. They have in many cases come to be characterized by social inequality, segregation and a bad reputation, and the housing in these areas has been criticized for both its quality and need of restoration. 

At present, many real estate companies have made large investments in these areas. The purpose of this thesis paper is to find the cause of the increase in investment interest, and how value creating factors in the million program areas differ from other locations. Additionally, this thesis paper studies the effects of urban densification in these areas, and if it has any effect on perceived investment opportunities. 

To answer these questions a literary study has been conducted, where relevant theories are presented. 40 different million program areas have been chosen for this study: 10 in Malmö, 10 in Gothenburg and 20 in the greater Stockholm area. Statistics describing the sales of condominiums and rental housing have been compiled for these areas. A regression analysis has been used where development in value of sold condominiums has been compared against value affecting factors. The pricing development has also been compared to the cost of developing new housing. Rental real estate, where the property has already been developed, that entered transactions has been the basis for understanding the value development of construction rights. These developments have been compared against the costs of acquiring land without any current housing on the property. Additionally, interviews have been conducted with companies and organizations in order to have an understanding of how the real estate business views these areas.

It turns out that the low interest rates at present have had an effect on investment incentives in the million program areas. At present an investment in these areas, despite the residents low WTP (willingness to pay), is seen as beneficial in comparison with other investments with lower expectations of return. The shortage of housing on the market in combination with rising land prices and potential for densification are also factors that contribute to the rise in investment interest. Real estate buyers are given the option to develop new housing, should the WTP exceed the cost of development. The WTP may well increase with growing city populations, which could see these areas eventually being regarded as centrally located.

The million program areas have several value increasing properties, such as strong community involvement and being in close proximity to nature. However, most of the studied areas in this thesis are burdened with income disparity, high unemployment rates, crime, lower levels of education, poor municipal traffic, housing in need of restoration and homogenous distribution of tenure. It is the conclusion of the authors that large social investments are needed to improve these areas. 

The potential for densification is deemed as promising by the authors, with large quantities of undeveloped land being suitable for various infill projects.},
  author       = {Ljung, Pernilla and Manhem, Frida},
  keyword      = {Miljonprogramsområden,Investeringsintresse,Förtätning,Värdepåverkande faktorer,Malmö,Göteborg,Stockholm},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Investeringsintresse i miljonprogram},
  year         = {2017},
}