Modeling the Weibull shape parameter to improve estimates of the annual wind energy potential in Sweden
(2018) In Student thesis series INES NGEM01 20172Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies in Sweden. To support this growth, it is essential to give stakeholders, such as investors, municipalities and policy planers, access to high accuracy and high-resolution wind speed data.
Essential components for an accurate wind energy potential prediction are the average long-term wind speed and the probability of occurrence of wind speeds. The probability is usually modeled either by the Weibull probability density function (PDF) or the Rayleigh PDF. For the case of Sweden, the average wind speed and Weibull shape parameters, as the main components of the Weibull PDF were available. However, the accuracy of the shape parameter was unknown.
This study evaluated whether... (More) - Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies in Sweden. To support this growth, it is essential to give stakeholders, such as investors, municipalities and policy planers, access to high accuracy and high-resolution wind speed data.
Essential components for an accurate wind energy potential prediction are the average long-term wind speed and the probability of occurrence of wind speeds. The probability is usually modeled either by the Weibull probability density function (PDF) or the Rayleigh PDF. For the case of Sweden, the average wind speed and Weibull shape parameters, as the main components of the Weibull PDF were available. However, the accuracy of the shape parameter was unknown.
This study evaluated whether there is a considerable difference between using the Weibull PDF or the Rayleigh PDF for assessing the annual wind energy potential at sites in Sweden. Due to the unknown accuracy of the shape parameter, a new model approach to model the shape parameter was proposed. A generalized additive model (GAM) was built out of the tested relationship between shape values at known locations and other geographical variables. It was tested if the modeled shape values resulted in a considerably more accurate energy prediction than the Rayleigh PDF. The results showed that the accuracy of the Rayleigh PDF was considerable lower than the one from the Weibull PDF and the GAM model PDF. The study also showed that the Rayleigh PDF is probably only a good representation for the wind conditions in the southern third of Sweden and it underestimated the potentials in the northern parts considerably. The GAM model seemed to perform well, had a high accuracy and it’s predicted values were in line with literature. It proved to be a good alternative to model the Weibull shape parameter and to use it for wind energy potential predictions. (Less) - Popular Abstract
- Modeling the wind energy potential in Sweden*
Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies in Sweden. Predictions of the wind energy potential can help stakeholders such as investors and municipalities in planning and investment decisions. The knowledge of the probability of how often wind speeds can occur at locations is essential to make an accurate prediction of the wind energy potential.
This study compared different ways of modeling the occurrence of wind speeds and compared their accuracy and their impact on the wind energy potential at meteorological stations in Sweden and for the whole country. Besides the common models, this study suggested a new way of modeling the wind speed occurrence based on different... (More) - Modeling the wind energy potential in Sweden*
Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies in Sweden. Predictions of the wind energy potential can help stakeholders such as investors and municipalities in planning and investment decisions. The knowledge of the probability of how often wind speeds can occur at locations is essential to make an accurate prediction of the wind energy potential.
This study compared different ways of modeling the occurrence of wind speeds and compared their accuracy and their impact on the wind energy potential at meteorological stations in Sweden and for the whole country. Besides the common models, this study suggested a new way of modeling the wind speed occurrence based on different geographic features.
The results showed that there were considerable differences in the accuracy of the different models and the resulting wind energy potentials based on them. Especially the simplest model performed poorly in large areas in Sweden and was not representative for most wind conditions. The new model performed well in predicting the wind speed occurrence and was suggested as a good alternative to the common models.
*original title:
Modeling the Weibull shape parameter to improve estimates of the annual wind energy potential in Sweden (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/8935557
- author
- Berlin, Bastian LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NGEM01 20172
- year
- 2018
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Physical Geography and Ecosystem analysis, wind energy potential, Weibull PDF, GAM, Rayleigh PDF, wind, Sweden
- publication/series
- Student thesis series INES
- report number
- 442
- language
- English
- id
- 8935557
- date added to LUP
- 2018-02-12 16:17:06
- date last changed
- 2018-02-12 16:17:06
@misc{8935557,
abstract = {{Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energies in Sweden. To support this growth, it is essential to give stakeholders, such as investors, municipalities and policy planers, access to high accuracy and high-resolution wind speed data.
Essential components for an accurate wind energy potential prediction are the average long-term wind speed and the probability of occurrence of wind speeds. The probability is usually modeled either by the Weibull probability density function (PDF) or the Rayleigh PDF. For the case of Sweden, the average wind speed and Weibull shape parameters, as the main components of the Weibull PDF were available. However, the accuracy of the shape parameter was unknown.
This study evaluated whether there is a considerable difference between using the Weibull PDF or the Rayleigh PDF for assessing the annual wind energy potential at sites in Sweden. Due to the unknown accuracy of the shape parameter, a new model approach to model the shape parameter was proposed. A generalized additive model (GAM) was built out of the tested relationship between shape values at known locations and other geographical variables. It was tested if the modeled shape values resulted in a considerably more accurate energy prediction than the Rayleigh PDF. The results showed that the accuracy of the Rayleigh PDF was considerable lower than the one from the Weibull PDF and the GAM model PDF. The study also showed that the Rayleigh PDF is probably only a good representation for the wind conditions in the southern third of Sweden and it underestimated the potentials in the northern parts considerably. The GAM model seemed to perform well, had a high accuracy and it’s predicted values were in line with literature. It proved to be a good alternative to model the Weibull shape parameter and to use it for wind energy potential predictions.}},
author = {{Berlin, Bastian}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Student thesis series INES}},
title = {{Modeling the Weibull shape parameter to improve estimates of the annual wind energy potential in Sweden}},
year = {{2018}},
}