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Sveriges framtida befolkningsstrukturer

Petersson, Ebba LU and Grahn, Cindy LU (2018) STAH11 20152
Department of Statistics
Abstract
The most central for the population to grow is the fertility rate. When the birth rate is not the
most central for an individual the conditions change the population growth. The fertility rate in
Sweden is around 1,88 children per woman, although there has been a drastic increase in the
population. This increase, which is a combination of the domestic birth rate and an external
increase, has given a new pattern to the Swedish population structure. A country’s population
structure gives a clear picture of how the population is built and together with its supply quota
it is even possible to see the country’s future livelihoods.
The purpose of this paper is based on various manipulations of the dependency ratio forecast
several future... (More)
The most central for the population to grow is the fertility rate. When the birth rate is not the
most central for an individual the conditions change the population growth. The fertility rate in
Sweden is around 1,88 children per woman, although there has been a drastic increase in the
population. This increase, which is a combination of the domestic birth rate and an external
increase, has given a new pattern to the Swedish population structure. A country’s population
structure gives a clear picture of how the population is built and together with its supply quota
it is even possible to see the country’s future livelihoods.
The purpose of this paper is based on various manipulations of the dependency ratio forecast
several future population structures and its economic sustainability. With the help of state
modelling in the form of Markov chains the forecasts and scenarios have created a ten-year
period. A quantitative method of the data has been applied, and material gathered from the
Central Statistics Office.
The result demonstrates a current population in Sweden that is not sustainable, when looking at
both the dependency ratio and the economic sustainability. The results of forecasts and the
scenarios are presented in the different aspects with the help of tables and figures to clarify the
data for the reader. Suggestions for further research highlight the aspect of a raw data set. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Petersson, Ebba LU and Grahn, Cindy LU
supervisor
organization
course
STAH11 20152
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Demografi, befolkningspyramid
language
Swedish
id
8936223
date added to LUP
2018-02-23 11:34:42
date last changed
2018-02-23 11:34:42
@misc{8936223,
  abstract     = {{The most central for the population to grow is the fertility rate. When the birth rate is not the
most central for an individual the conditions change the population growth. The fertility rate in
Sweden is around 1,88 children per woman, although there has been a drastic increase in the
population. This increase, which is a combination of the domestic birth rate and an external
increase, has given a new pattern to the Swedish population structure. A country’s population
structure gives a clear picture of how the population is built and together with its supply quota
it is even possible to see the country’s future livelihoods.
The purpose of this paper is based on various manipulations of the dependency ratio forecast
several future population structures and its economic sustainability. With the help of state
modelling in the form of Markov chains the forecasts and scenarios have created a ten-year
period. A quantitative method of the data has been applied, and material gathered from the
Central Statistics Office.
The result demonstrates a current population in Sweden that is not sustainable, when looking at
both the dependency ratio and the economic sustainability. The results of forecasts and the
scenarios are presented in the different aspects with the help of tables and figures to clarify the
data for the reader. Suggestions for further research highlight the aspect of a raw data set.}},
  author       = {{Petersson, Ebba and Grahn, Cindy}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Sveriges framtida befolkningsstrukturer}},
  year         = {{2018}},
}