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An Extreme Value Approach to Modeling Risk of Extreme Rainfall in Bangladesh

Andersson, Emmy and Nilsson, Evelina (2018) MASK01 20181
Mathematical Statistics
Abstract
The extreme value theory has been applied on daily rainfall in the five most
exposed areas of Bangladesh between the years 1980-2016 in order to esti-
mate extreme rainfalls for the next 10, 50 and 100 years. These types of
computations are necessary for optimising planning and preparations for ex-
treme future rainfalls which can lead to minimising property damage and
ultimately saving lives.
Generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to annual maxima accord-
ing to the block maxima method. In addition, the generalised Pareto distri-
bution is fitted to the daily rainfall according to the Peaks-Over-Threshold
method. The different parameters were estimated with a 95 % confidence
interval both through the delta- and the... (More)
The extreme value theory has been applied on daily rainfall in the five most
exposed areas of Bangladesh between the years 1980-2016 in order to esti-
mate extreme rainfalls for the next 10, 50 and 100 years. These types of
computations are necessary for optimising planning and preparations for ex-
treme future rainfalls which can lead to minimising property damage and
ultimately saving lives.
Generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to annual maxima accord-
ing to the block maxima method. In addition, the generalised Pareto distri-
bution is fitted to the daily rainfall according to the Peaks-Over-Threshold
method. The different parameters were estimated with a 95 % confidence
interval both through the delta- and the profile likelihood methods. There-
after, the return period is computed according to each model using the same
estimated confidence intervals. (Less)
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author
Andersson, Emmy and Nilsson, Evelina
supervisor
organization
course
MASK01 20181
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
language
English
id
8939492
date added to LUP
2018-05-11 13:42:17
date last changed
2018-05-11 13:42:17
@misc{8939492,
  abstract     = {The extreme value theory has been applied on daily rainfall in the five most
exposed areas of Bangladesh between the years 1980-2016 in order to esti-
mate extreme rainfalls for the next 10, 50 and 100 years. These types of
computations are necessary for optimising planning and preparations for ex-
treme future rainfalls which can lead to minimising property damage and
ultimately saving lives.
Generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to annual maxima accord-
ing to the block maxima method. In addition, the generalised Pareto distri-
bution is fitted to the daily rainfall according to the Peaks-Over-Threshold
method. The different parameters were estimated with a 95 % confidence
interval both through the delta- and the profile likelihood methods. There-
after, the return period is computed according to each model using the same
estimated confidence intervals.},
  author       = {Andersson, Emmy and Nilsson, Evelina},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {An Extreme Value Approach to Modeling Risk of Extreme Rainfall in Bangladesh},
  year         = {2018},
}