Hur kan lastbilstransportsystemet komma att se ut i framtiden? - En scenarioanalys

Abstract

A number of global megatrends, such as self-driving technology, elec-
trification of vehicles, ICT, CSR and a lot of other social and political
trends are currently impacting the Swedish truck freight system. Identi-
fications of these trends and preparedness for the potential impact they
will have on the future truck freight system will be paramount for both
incumbents and new actors in this system.
The purpose of this study is therefore to map what today’s truck
freight system (TFS) looks like i terms of actors, resources and activities
(ARA). Furthermore, the purpose is also to identify which main trends
may affect the TFS and describe what the future’s TFS may look like in
different scenarios.
The method of the study is based on qualitative case studies with
primarily data from interviews with twelve key informants from differ-
ent stakeholders with different perspectives. The study is essentially a
scenario analysis based on an iterative, inductive and qualitative analysis.

Findings The current TFS consists of the following five actors; truck-
OEMs, dealers, hauliers, freight forwarders / logistics service providers
and transport buyers.
Usually, truck-OEMs manufacture trucks, which are then sold and
serviced via dealers. The buyer of the trucks is a haulier, often with
one or two trucks in its fleet, who is responsible for the actual transport.
Hauliers are often contractors to freight forwarders. The freight forwarder
provides the necessary infrastructure to operate efficient road transport
in terms of warehouses, terminals and associated resources. Forwarders
also handle customer accounts and can consolidate transport needs to
optimize the degree of filling. In some cases, the freight forwarder acts
as third party logistics for the transport buyer and handles the entire
transportation planning.
Key trends that are likely to have a significant impact are; increasing
focus on the climate, increasing cost pressure, connectivity, increasing
safety requirements, increasing shortage of drivers and increasing demand
for truck transport.
The most uncertain key trends, the ”Key Drivers of Change (KDoC)”,
identified were self-driving technology, truck electrification and deregula-
tion of cabotage.
Four possible scenarios where created by choosing the two most uncer-
tain KDoC, which were self-driving technology and deregulation of cabo-
tage, as variables and defining extreme outcomes for these.


If advanced self-driving trucks become reality in ten years, it could
lead to truck manufacturers being able to handle the operation, service
and ownership of the trucks by offering transport as a service. Self-driving
trucks will primarily be adapted within transport segments such as remote
traffic, internal warehouses, ports and mines. Other segments such as
distribution, construction and other similar segments are more immune
to automation.
In all scenarios, the key trends are found, and the combination of an
increasing shortage of drivers, together with increased transport demand
would lead to a price increase. Increasing cost pressures could lead to
deregulation of cabotage, which would increase the proportion of foreign
hauliers in Sweden. The foreign hauliers would primarily traffic long-haul
freight. This would probably have a price-mitigating effect on the market.

• author: Enfors, Erik and Widman, Carl Mikael
• supervisor: Ingela Elofsson
• organization: Production Management
• course: MIOM05
• year: 2018
• type: M1 - University Diploma
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Freight, trucks, transport, trends, scenarios, actors, ARA- model
• other publication id: 18/5597
• language: Swedish
• id: 8953404
• date added to LUP: 2018-06-27 14:49:42
• date last changed: 2018-06-27 14:49:42