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Climate Change and Precipitation Variability Influence on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Olsson, Jennie LU (2018) FYSK02 20181
Department of Physics
Combustion Physics
Abstract
Climate changes have a large impact on precipitation patterns and precipitation variability change. With this in mind, precipitation over Greenland is studied. This is done for present day precipitation model data from 1991-2010 compared to future model simulations of precipitation for 2081-2100. Furthermore, precipitation drives Surface Mass Balance (SMB), which is the sum of accumulation and the loss of mass by melting of the ice sheet, meaning it decides the evolution of glaciers. In order to find more information about future changes of precipitation distribution between the seasons of the year and possible changes, precipitation variability is investigated. Also, the aim includes an examination of the difference in mean annual... (More)
Climate changes have a large impact on precipitation patterns and precipitation variability change. With this in mind, precipitation over Greenland is studied. This is done for present day precipitation model data from 1991-2010 compared to future model simulations of precipitation for 2081-2100. Furthermore, precipitation drives Surface Mass Balance (SMB), which is the sum of accumulation and the loss of mass by melting of the ice sheet, meaning it decides the evolution of glaciers. In order to find more information about future changes of precipitation distribution between the seasons of the year and possible changes, precipitation variability is investigated. Also, the aim includes an examination of the difference in mean annual precipitation between the time periods. Model simulations with EC-Earth downscaled through HIRHAM5 is mainly used for this study. Also the global atmospheric re-analysis ERA-Interim is used and a new model with modified ice sheet topography called GT2. There will be an increase in mean annual precipitation over Greenland for 2081-2100 compared to 1991-2010, a conclusion made according to the results obtained using RCP8.5, a scenario with high rates of combustion. The SMB mass term will with this scenario, become more negative in the future compared to present day, meaning there will be a greater mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In the final analysis, the precipitation variability as well as the seasonality will change for Greenland in the future according to the RCP8.5 scenario. (Less)
Popular Abstract
How will climate changes affect the Greenland ice sheet? An increase in the greenhouse effect and the average temperature of the Earth will be the result of climate change. Higher temperatures cause a sea level rise, as glaciers melt. This threatens vulnerable land masses, which can possibly be covered with water in the near future. Climate impact occur in many ways, one of them is by the emission of greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels. Moreover, an increase in extreme weather events can be expected in the future. This will affect the life of human, sea cities and ecosystems. Also, a higher mean temperature of the earth will result in more shifting weather and more extreme precipitation events, as well as increasing droughts. Not... (More)
How will climate changes affect the Greenland ice sheet? An increase in the greenhouse effect and the average temperature of the Earth will be the result of climate change. Higher temperatures cause a sea level rise, as glaciers melt. This threatens vulnerable land masses, which can possibly be covered with water in the near future. Climate impact occur in many ways, one of them is by the emission of greenhouse gases from combustion of fossil fuels. Moreover, an increase in extreme weather events can be expected in the future. This will affect the life of human, sea cities and ecosystems. Also, a higher mean temperature of the earth will result in more shifting weather and more extreme precipitation events, as well as increasing droughts. Not to mention, it is predicted that if the global warming continues at the same rate as today, the average surface temperature will rise with several degrees Celsius when we reach the end of the century. The ice sheet in Greenland melts more and more. What can possibly balance this trend is precipitation, as it can give a positive mass balance. As an illustration, Surface Mass Balance (SMB) is a measure of the growth or the decrease of mass of an ice sheet. Due to this, it is interesting to know how the precipitation will look in the future for Greenland, compared to present day, as it will affect the evolution of the glacier. This project investigates precipitation patterns for Greenland, the SMB and also precipitation variability. This is done with the help of climate models and a future scenario based on certain amounts of emissions. Furthermore, how the amount of precipitation will vary over the seasons is defined as precipitation variability, and it is of interest to find out if this will change in the future, as it would affect the seasonality. The conclusion of this study is that, overall, there will be more precipitation throughout Greenland in the future, compared to present day, The results indicate that for coastal climates there will be a general increase of the amounts of precipitation, but no clear difference in the variation of precipitation, compared with inland climate where there will be both a general increase of the amounts and a change in the variation of precipitation. Consequently, this may point to a change in the climate for the inland of Greenland. The SMB will be more negative around the coasts in the future, meaning a greater mass loss of the ice sheet and also, the seasonality will change for Greenland in the future. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Olsson, Jennie LU
supervisor
organization
course
FYSK02 20181
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Physics, Ice Sheet, Surface Mass Balance, SMB, Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, Climate Change, Greenland, Precipitation, Precipitation Variability, Glaciers, Glacier, Meteorology, Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gas, Future Climate, Climate
language
English
id
8954681
date added to LUP
2018-07-14 13:09:13
date last changed
2018-07-14 13:09:13
@misc{8954681,
  abstract     = {{Climate changes have a large impact on precipitation patterns and precipitation variability change. With this in mind, precipitation over Greenland is studied. This is done for present day precipitation model data from 1991-2010 compared to future model simulations of precipitation for 2081-2100. Furthermore, precipitation drives Surface Mass Balance (SMB), which is the sum of accumulation and the loss of mass by melting of the ice sheet, meaning it decides the evolution of glaciers. In order to find more information about future changes of precipitation distribution between the seasons of the year and possible changes, precipitation variability is investigated. Also, the aim includes an examination of the difference in mean annual precipitation between the time periods. Model simulations with EC-Earth downscaled through HIRHAM5 is mainly used for this study. Also the global atmospheric re-analysis ERA-Interim is used and a new model with modified ice sheet topography called GT2. There will be an increase in mean annual precipitation over Greenland for 2081-2100 compared to 1991-2010, a conclusion made according to the results obtained using RCP8.5, a scenario with high rates of combustion. The SMB mass term will with this scenario, become more negative in the future compared to present day, meaning there will be a greater mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In the final analysis, the precipitation variability as well as the seasonality will change for Greenland in the future according to the RCP8.5 scenario.}},
  author       = {{Olsson, Jennie}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Climate Change and Precipitation Variability Influence on the Greenland Ice Sheet}},
  year         = {{2018}},
}