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Dragkampen mellan kontor och bostäder i Stockholm

Andersson, Sissel LU (2018) In TVBP VBEM01 20181
Construction Management
Abstract
In recent years, Stockholm has shown a large rent increases in the office market simultaneously as the housing market has cooled off. Although Sweden is well measured in several areas such as vacancy and GDP, other cities that also produced significant GDP growth and low vacancy rates have not shown as much rental growth as Stockholm. This study examines if and how the housing market has affected office rents in Stockholm. If one of the segments, the housing market, has an advance that makes it more profitable to develop houses over another type, there would be a construction boom. The effects of this imbalance would eventually lead to price increases in the office segment which would make it grow until it is as profitable to build offices... (More)
In recent years, Stockholm has shown a large rent increases in the office market simultaneously as the housing market has cooled off. Although Sweden is well measured in several areas such as vacancy and GDP, other cities that also produced significant GDP growth and low vacancy rates have not shown as much rental growth as Stockholm. This study examines if and how the housing market has affected office rents in Stockholm. If one of the segments, the housing market, has an advance that makes it more profitable to develop houses over another type, there would be a construction boom. The effects of this imbalance would eventually lead to price increases in the office segment which would make it grow until it is as profitable to build offices as housing. It could explain that the housing volumes have increased 26 % since 2015 and 200 % since to 2012. However, housing prices have dropped in the last six months, while office rents increased. By the time developers realize they’ve entered into an oversaturated market, it’s often too late. For example, the Wallenstam project "Orangeriet” is converted from condominiums to rental apartments, which is a loss for the company. The newly produced dwellings are more expensive, more than the inhabitant’s demand, which leads to price reductions. Over and undershooting in production and prices are characteristic in the real estate market. The overproduction that exists in Stockholm is often due to the increased need for housing. For example, while the recent influx of refugees are in need of housing, they cannot afford newly produced, expensive homes, which creates additional uncertainty in the market.
This study has shown that Stockholm is a unique market where there have been extraordinarily unique events in the past year that create uncertainty in the market. The housing shortage is still high, till but needs are not always the same as economic demand. The rent regulation is far from gone and according to analyses, investment support from the government for rental houses in big cities, where they are meant to work, do not help. The real estate industry is extremely regulated, prices are falling on the housing market and office rents are increasing in record time, while the real estate industry is more regulated than ever before. A price ratio between homes and offices shows that for the first time since 2007, it is more profitable for developers to build offices than homes. (Less)
Abstract (Swedish)
Stockholm har under de senaste åren visat stora hyresökningar på kontorsmarknaden samtidigt som bostadsmarknaden har avsvalnat. Även fast Sverige placeras bra i avseende på flera mått såsom vakans och BNP har städer som också haft bra tillväxt i BNP och låg vakans inte uppvisat lika hög hyrestillväxt. Den här studien undersöker fallet om bostadsmarknaden har påverkat kontorshyrorna i Stockholm. Om en av marknaderna, bostadsmarknaden, har en utvecklig som gör det mer lönsamt att utveckla det framför det andra, kontor, skulle det ske en byggboom. En byggboom av bostäder skulle göra att den marknaden så småningom avmattas lite vilket senare skulle leda till att den andra branschen expanderar tills det är lika lönsamt att bygga kontor som... (More)
Stockholm har under de senaste åren visat stora hyresökningar på kontorsmarknaden samtidigt som bostadsmarknaden har avsvalnat. Även fast Sverige placeras bra i avseende på flera mått såsom vakans och BNP har städer som också haft bra tillväxt i BNP och låg vakans inte uppvisat lika hög hyrestillväxt. Den här studien undersöker fallet om bostadsmarknaden har påverkat kontorshyrorna i Stockholm. Om en av marknaderna, bostadsmarknaden, har en utvecklig som gör det mer lönsamt att utveckla det framför det andra, kontor, skulle det ske en byggboom. En byggboom av bostäder skulle göra att den marknaden så småningom avmattas lite vilket senare skulle leda till att den andra branschen expanderar tills det är lika lönsamt att bygga kontor som bostäder. Det skulle kunna förklara ökningen i bostadsbyggande på 26 % sedan 2015 och 200 % jämfört med 2012. Bostadspriserna har dock fallit det senaste halvåret medan kontorshyrorna och kontorsfastighetspriserna har ökat. Bostadsmarknaden är övermättad på en begränsad yta och eftersom bostadsutvecklingsprojekt tar mycket lång tid upptäcks det inte innan det är för sent och då börjar utvecklare tänka om och som exemplet med Wallenstams projekt ”Orangeriet” omvandlas från bostadsrätter till hyresrätter, en uppenbar förlust för bolaget. Den nya volymen nyproducerade bostäder är ofta dyrare och högre än vad marknaden efterfrågar vilket leder till sänkta priser. ”Over”- och ”under shooting” i produktion och priser är ett typiskt kännetecken för bostadsmarknaden. Överproduktionen som finns i Stockholm kan bero på det ökade behovet av bostäder på grund av till exempel flyktingvågen, men deras behov kan inte likställas med efterfrågan för nyproducerade dyra bostäder.
Den här studien har visat att Stockholm är en unik marknad där det har skett unika händelser det senaste året som skapar en osäkerhet på marknaden. Bostadsbristen är fortfarande ett faktum, men behov är inte alltid detsamma som ekonomisk efterfråga och fel typer av bostäder byggs. Hyresregleringen är långt ifrån borta och enligt analyser hjälper inte investeringsstödet hyresrättsbyggandet i storstäder, där de är menade att verka. Fastighetsbranschen är extremt reglerad, priser faller på bostadssidan och kontorshyror ökar rekordmycket samtidigt som fastighetsbranschen ska regleras ännu mer. En priskvot mellan bostäder och kontor visar att för första gången sedan 2007 är det mer lönsamt för utvecklare att bygga kontor än bostäder. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Andersson, Sissel LU
supervisor
organization
course
VBEM01 20181
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Fastighet, Fastighetsmarknaden, Stockholm, Real Estate, Kontorsmarknad, Bostadsmarknad, Office, Housing marknet, Office rents, Kontorshyror, Bostadspriser
publication/series
TVBP
report number
18/5569
language
Swedish
id
8959017
date added to LUP
2018-10-12 11:58:02
date last changed
2018-10-12 11:58:02
@misc{8959017,
  abstract     = {In recent years, Stockholm has shown a large rent increases in the office market simultaneously as the housing market has cooled off. Although Sweden is well measured in several areas such as vacancy and GDP, other cities that also produced significant GDP growth and low vacancy rates have not shown as much rental growth as Stockholm. This study examines if and how the housing market has affected office rents in Stockholm. If one of the segments, the housing market, has an advance that makes it more profitable to develop houses over another type, there would be a construction boom. The effects of this imbalance would eventually lead to price increases in the office segment which would make it grow until it is as profitable to build offices as housing. It could explain that the housing volumes have increased 26 % since 2015 and 200 % since to 2012. However, housing prices have dropped in the last six months, while office rents increased. By the time developers realize they’ve entered into an oversaturated market, it’s often too late. For example, the Wallenstam project "Orangeriet” is converted from condominiums to rental apartments, which is a loss for the company. The newly produced dwellings are more expensive, more than the inhabitant’s demand, which leads to price reductions. Over and undershooting in production and prices are characteristic in the real estate market. The overproduction that exists in Stockholm is often due to the increased need for housing. For example, while the recent influx of refugees are in need of housing, they cannot afford newly produced, expensive homes, which creates additional uncertainty in the market.
This study has shown that Stockholm is a unique market where there have been extraordinarily unique events in the past year that create uncertainty in the market. The housing shortage is still high, till but needs are not always the same as economic demand. The rent regulation is far from gone and according to analyses, investment support from the government for rental houses in big cities, where they are meant to work, do not help. The real estate industry is extremely regulated, prices are falling on the housing market and office rents are increasing in record time, while the real estate industry is more regulated than ever before. A price ratio between homes and offices shows that for the first time since 2007, it is more profitable for developers to build offices than homes.},
  author       = {Andersson, Sissel},
  keyword      = {Fastighet,Fastighetsmarknaden,Stockholm,Real Estate,Kontorsmarknad,Bostadsmarknad,Office,Housing marknet,Office rents,Kontorshyror,Bostadspriser},
  language     = {swe},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  series       = {TVBP},
  title        = {Dragkampen mellan kontor och bostäder i Stockholm},
  year         = {2018},
}