Linking conflict events and cropland development in Afghanistan, 2001 to 2011, using MODIS land cover data and Uppsala Conflict Data Programme

Abstract

Linking conflict events and cropland development in Afghanistan,
2001 to 2011, using MODIS land cover data and Uppsala Conflict Data Programme


This thesis describes changes in land cover between 2001 and 2011 in Afghanistan, and analyzes the influence of conflict events on cropland development. How did fighting intensity affect cropland areas in Afghanistan, did cropland areas decrease or increase, and were there regional differences in cropland development?

Yearly MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover data have been used in this thesis work to assess cropland changes. Cropland area has increased from 8,188 km² in 2001 to 13,304 km² in 2011. Regional patterns are that the area of cropland decreased in more mountainous regions, and increased in the plains north and south of the Hindu Kush, the mountain range dominating Afghanistan.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset has been used to assess conflict events. The number of UCDP entries in a specific area has been used as a measure of conflict intensity.

Key Results
In areas with higher conflict intensities, cropland area increased slower than in areas without conflict events. While cropland area increased by 85 % from 2001 to 2011 in conflict free regions, it only increased by 37 % in conflict regions. In areas with very high conflict intensities, there is a 10 % increase in cropland area.
These results fit well into the current state of research: The Soviet invasion in the nineteen-eighties had long lasting negative impact on cropland area, leaving room for increases in cropland area. Research has shown negative effects of war on agricultural development, which fits the findings that higher conflict areas result in decelerated cropland growth. Regarding the overall positive cropland development in Afghanistan, the question arises what part of this growth is due to the influence of poppy cultivation/ heroin production, which would shift the assessment of the growth both from a moral and a food security perspective.

Popular Abstract

How did conflict events influence cropland development in Afghanistan?

This thesis analyzed changes in land cover composition of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2011, especially cropland areas. Did conflict events have an influence on cropland area development? Did cropland areas near conflict events develop differently than in the rest of the country? Did the conflict intensity play a role? Were there regional differences in cropland development?

Imagery created by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensors on the satellites Terra and Aqua is used to automatically classify different land cover types. The results of this are freely available as yearly land cover datasets. These datasets have been used to compare the cropland extent in Afghanistan for the years 2001 to 2011. Cropland area has increased from 8,188 km² in 2001 to 13,304 km² in 2011. The area of cropland decreased in more mountainous regions, and increased in the plains north and south of the Hindu Kush, the mountain range dominating Afghanistan.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP) collects conflict events world wide. Every event represents an incident with at least one person killed. These events are given a geographic location, this collection of events is published in the Georeferenced Event Dataset. This dataset has been used to look at the spatial distribution of conflict events in Afghanistan. Regions with conflict events have been classified as conflict regions. The number of events in a specific area has been used as a measure of conflict intensity.

Key Results
Overall, cropland area in Afghanistan increased by roughly 60 %, from 8,188 km² in 2001 to 13,304 km² in 2011. In areas with higher conflict intensities, cropland area increased slower than in areas without conflict events. While cropland area increased by 85 % from 2001 to 2011 in conflict free regions, it only increased by 37 % in conflict regions. In areas with very high conflict intensities, there was only a 10 % increase in cropland area. This indicates that cropland growth is slowed down in conflict areas. However, at this point, it is not possible to make any statements about a relationship of cause and effect. That means further research would be needed to assess if the slowed down cropland growth is because of conflict events.
These results fit well into the current state of research: The Soviet invasion in the nineteen-eighties had long lasting negative impact on cropland area, leaving room for increases in cropland area. Research has shown negative effects of war on agricultural development, which fits the findings that higher conflict areas result in decelerated cropland growth. More research is needed however to investigate further into relationships of cause and effect.

• author: Hesch, Gunnar
• supervisor: Petter Pilesjö
• organization: Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
• course: GISM01 20191
• year: 2019
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Earth and Environmental Sciences
• keywords: geography, GIS, MODIS, Afghanistan, UCDP GED, cropland, conflict
• publication/series: Master Thesis in Geographical Information Science
• report number: 105
• language: English
• id: 8990800
• date added to LUP: 2019-07-16 12:18:28
• date last changed: 2019-07-16 12:18:28