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Moment 22 vid finansiering av nyproduktion av bostadsrätter.

Skrealid, Gustaf LU (2019) VFTM01 20192
Real Estate Science
Abstract
Sweden has under a long time suffered from a large housing shortage that has led to
severe problems in society. The shortage has led to a very limited mobility within the
housing market. This is because a person who has acquired a home unwillingly wants
to move, partly because of the high transaction costs, housing prices and lack of
alternatives. This restricts business and industry from growing and hiring the right
skills because the new staff cannot find accommodations. The shortage has pushed
prices to high levels for owned housing and created long queues for rented housing.
Housing prices reached a peak in 2017 and since then the future of the market has
become more uncertain. Falling prices, delays of access, and negative... (More)
Sweden has under a long time suffered from a large housing shortage that has led to
severe problems in society. The shortage has led to a very limited mobility within the
housing market. This is because a person who has acquired a home unwillingly wants
to move, partly because of the high transaction costs, housing prices and lack of
alternatives. This restricts business and industry from growing and hiring the right
skills because the new staff cannot find accommodations. The shortage has pushed
prices to high levels for owned housing and created long queues for rented housing.
Housing prices reached a peak in 2017 and since then the future of the market has
become more uncertain. Falling prices, delays of access, and negative press have
contributed to the more hesitant consumers. This means that buyers of housing
cooperative shares no longer dare to buy the housing before it’s built and carry the
risk that it entails. The high asking price for housing is one factor, but the major
reason is the long time between purchase of the housing until the access date and the
market risk during that time. When the consumers no longer dare to carry the initial
risk of the building project the developers don’t reach the required percentage of
sales, then the banks no longer allow a construction loan. In addition, the Swedish
financial supervisory authority has introduced a number of credit restrictions and
amortization requirements that have further inhibit the market. Here is a vacuum in
the traditional financing model, a catch-22. This has led to a new decline in housing
construction over the past year.
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what alternative financing or solutions that
could solve this deadlock. At the same time the report investigates how the industry
views the future of the market, the origins of the deadlock, what problems Swedish
housing construction is facing and if any political changes would be required.
The method chosen was to conduct a personal interview study in order to obtain
nuanced answers and a better understanding of the complex problem, Swedish
housing supply and the rules of the market. This was complemented with a study of
literature to link the results to relevant theory.
The results show that this catch-22 on the initial financing and the question about who
should carry the initial risk can be solved through a couple of possible solutions.
These solutions transfer risk from consumers to either the developer or venture
capital. The most realistic solution is that a developer uses equity or external venture
capital to start a construction when the bank does not grant a construction permit.
When the house is under construction, it is much easier to convince consumers that
the project will be completed and stick to the time frame, while reducing the time to
the access of the housing and thus reducing the risk for the consumer. Then hopefully
the apartments will be sold, and when the bank’s requirements are met, the project
developer can switch to using a traditional construction credit.
The study shows that the traditional financing model where consumers buy a share in
a housing cooperative before construction on a drawing, will continue to be relevant
when buyers have a strong confidence in the market’s future. However, models where
the developer must undertake more risk and start construction without secured buyers
will complement it in times when consumers are more uncertain about market
developments. The industry is likely to see an increase in well-capitalized players
who build more on speculation from their own equity. The risk will be transferred
from the private person on to the developer. The company can then get the profit (or
part of it) that previously went to the private individuals who took the risk. The study
is of relevance as it highlights many of the different problems in Swedish housing
supply that together has created this problematic situation. (Less)
Popular Abstract (Swedish)
Sverige har under en lång tid lidit av en stor bostadsbrist vilket leder till många
problem i samhället och en begränsad rörlighet på bostadsmarknaden. Detta eftersom
den som väl skaffat sig en bostad ogärna vill flytta, dels för de höga
transaktionskostnaderna, och bostadspriserna samt bristen på bra alternativ. Detta
leder till att näringslivet har svårt att anställa rätt kompetens och växa eftersom den
nya personalen inte kan finna en bostad. Bristen har drivit upp priserna på ägda
boenden och skapat långa köer för hyresrätter. Bostadspriserna nådde en topp 2017
och sedan dess har framtiden för marknaden blivit mer osäker. Fallande priser,
förseningar och negativ press har gjort marknaden orolig. Det har gjort att köpare av
... (More)
Sverige har under en lång tid lidit av en stor bostadsbrist vilket leder till många
problem i samhället och en begränsad rörlighet på bostadsmarknaden. Detta eftersom
den som väl skaffat sig en bostad ogärna vill flytta, dels för de höga
transaktionskostnaderna, och bostadspriserna samt bristen på bra alternativ. Detta
leder till att näringslivet har svårt att anställa rätt kompetens och växa eftersom den
nya personalen inte kan finna en bostad. Bristen har drivit upp priserna på ägda
boenden och skapat långa köer för hyresrätter. Bostadspriserna nådde en topp 2017
och sedan dess har framtiden för marknaden blivit mer osäker. Fallande priser,
förseningar och negativ press har gjort marknaden orolig. Det har gjort att köpare av
bostadsrätter inte längre vågar köpa en bostadsrätt på ritning och bära den risken som
det innebär. Det relativt höga priset på en nyproducerad bostadsrätt är en faktor, men
den faktorn som är mest avgörande är den långa tiden mellan köpet och tillträdet. När
konsumenterna inte vill bära den risken så når inte projektutvecklarna upp till den
försäljningsgrad som banken i sin tur kräver för att ge ett byggnadskreditiv. Därutöver
har Finansinspektionen introducerat ett antal kreditrestriktioner och amorteringskrav
som har hämmat marknaden ytterligare. Här uppstår ett vacuum i den traditionella
finansieringsmodellen, ett Moment 22. Detta har lett till att byggnationen av nya
bostäder drastiskt har minskat det senaste året.
Syftet med detta examensarbete är att undersöka vilka alternativa finansieringar eller
lösningar som skulle kunna lösa detta dödläge. Samtidigt undersöker arbetet hur
branschen ser på marknadsutvecklingen, vad som är ursprunget till detta dödläge,
vilka problem svenskt bostadsbyggande står för samt om de skulle välkomna några
politiska förändringar.
Metoden som valdes var att utföra en personlig intervjustudie för att kunna få fram
nyanserade svar och en bättre förståelse för det komplexa problemet, svensk
bostadsförsörjning och de regler som marknadens aktörer måste förhålla sig till. Detta
kompletterades av en litteraturstudie för att koppla resultaten till relevant teori.
Resultatet visar att detta Moment 22 vid initiala finansieringen och frågan om vem
som skall bära den risken går att lösa genom ett par tänkbara lösningar. Dessa
lösningar flyttar risken från konsumenterna över till antingen projektutvecklaren eller
riskkapital. Den mest realistiska lösningen är att en projektutvecklare använder eget
kapital eller externt riskkapital för att starta ett bygge när banken inte beviljar ett
byggnadskreditiv. När sedan bostäderna är under konstruktion är det betydligt enklare
att övertyga konsumenter om att projektet blir av och tidsramen håller, samtidigt som
tiden till inflyttning minskar och därmed konsumentens risk. Då säljs förhoppningsvis
bostadsrätterna, och när bankens försäljningskrav är uppnått så kan
projektutvecklaren övergå till att använda ett byggnadskreditiv.

Studien visar att den traditionella finansieringsmodellen, där konsumenter köper en
bostadsrätt på ritning, kommer fortsatt vara relevant när konsumenter har en stark
tilltro till marknaden och prisutvecklingen. Däremot kommer den, i tider där
konsumenterna är mer osäkra på marknadsutvecklingen, att kompletteras av modeller
där projektutvecklare måste ta mer egen risk och starta byggen utan säkerställda
köpare. Troligen kommer branschen se en ökning av välkapitaliserade aktörer som
bygger mer av egen räkning och spekulation. Risken flyttas då från privatpersonen till
projektutvecklaren. Företaget kan då tillgodoräkna sig hela, eller delar av, den
projektvinst som tidigare erhölls av privatpersonerna som tog risk. Studien är relevant
då den belyser ett problem kring finansieringen av nyproduktionen samt försörjningen
av bostäder i Sverige. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Skrealid, Gustaf LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
The catch-22 regarding financing new development of private housing cooperatives.
course
VFTM01 20192
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Bostadsrätt, bostadsbrist, byggnadskreditiv, finansiering, nyproduktion, Moment 22, Private housing cooperatives, housing shortage, construction loan, finance, new production, catch-22
other publication id
ISRN/LUTVDG/TVLM/19/5447 SE
language
Swedish
id
9001049
date added to LUP
2020-01-30 09:34:29
date last changed
2020-01-30 09:34:29
@misc{9001049,
  abstract     = {{Sweden has under a long time suffered from a large housing shortage that has led to
severe problems in society. The shortage has led to a very limited mobility within the
housing market. This is because a person who has acquired a home unwillingly wants
to move, partly because of the high transaction costs, housing prices and lack of
alternatives. This restricts business and industry from growing and hiring the right
skills because the new staff cannot find accommodations. The shortage has pushed
prices to high levels for owned housing and created long queues for rented housing.
Housing prices reached a peak in 2017 and since then the future of the market has
become more uncertain. Falling prices, delays of access, and negative press have
contributed to the more hesitant consumers. This means that buyers of housing
cooperative shares no longer dare to buy the housing before it’s built and carry the
risk that it entails. The high asking price for housing is one factor, but the major
reason is the long time between purchase of the housing until the access date and the
market risk during that time. When the consumers no longer dare to carry the initial
risk of the building project the developers don’t reach the required percentage of
sales, then the banks no longer allow a construction loan. In addition, the Swedish
financial supervisory authority has introduced a number of credit restrictions and
amortization requirements that have further inhibit the market. Here is a vacuum in
the traditional financing model, a catch-22. This has led to a new decline in housing
construction over the past year.
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what alternative financing or solutions that
could solve this deadlock. At the same time the report investigates how the industry
views the future of the market, the origins of the deadlock, what problems Swedish
housing construction is facing and if any political changes would be required.
The method chosen was to conduct a personal interview study in order to obtain
nuanced answers and a better understanding of the complex problem, Swedish
housing supply and the rules of the market. This was complemented with a study of
literature to link the results to relevant theory.
The results show that this catch-22 on the initial financing and the question about who
should carry the initial risk can be solved through a couple of possible solutions.
These solutions transfer risk from consumers to either the developer or venture
capital. The most realistic solution is that a developer uses equity or external venture
capital to start a construction when the bank does not grant a construction permit.
When the house is under construction, it is much easier to convince consumers that
the project will be completed and stick to the time frame, while reducing the time to
the access of the housing and thus reducing the risk for the consumer. Then hopefully
the apartments will be sold, and when the bank’s requirements are met, the project
developer can switch to using a traditional construction credit.
The study shows that the traditional financing model where consumers buy a share in
a housing cooperative before construction on a drawing, will continue to be relevant
when buyers have a strong confidence in the market’s future. However, models where
the developer must undertake more risk and start construction without secured buyers
will complement it in times when consumers are more uncertain about market
developments. The industry is likely to see an increase in well-capitalized players
who build more on speculation from their own equity. The risk will be transferred
from the private person on to the developer. The company can then get the profit (or
part of it) that previously went to the private individuals who took the risk. The study
is of relevance as it highlights many of the different problems in Swedish housing
supply that together has created this problematic situation.}},
  author       = {{Skrealid, Gustaf}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Moment 22 vid finansiering av nyproduktion av bostadsrätter.}},
  year         = {{2019}},
}