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A Conceptual Framework for Long-Term Strategic Foresight

Dahlgren, Charlotte LU and Bergman, Katarina LU (2020) INTM01 20201
Innovation Engineering
Abstract
As global connectivity becomes the driver of value and vulnerability, new concerns are coming into the foreground that needs to be addressed – for example, the resource security-climate nexus, or the means of governing emerging technologies. The broader context and outset for this thesis is the defense and civil security landscape. More specifically, strategic foresight and the increasing challenge of anticipating and predicting the long-term (+20-40 years) future in terms of uncertainty and complexity is investigated in the context of Saab AB; a global producer of products, services and solutions within the defense and civil security industry. Technology-intensive organizations such as Saab, with long product life cycles and contract... (More)
As global connectivity becomes the driver of value and vulnerability, new concerns are coming into the foreground that needs to be addressed – for example, the resource security-climate nexus, or the means of governing emerging technologies. The broader context and outset for this thesis is the defense and civil security landscape. More specifically, strategic foresight and the increasing challenge of anticipating and predicting the long-term (+20-40 years) future in terms of uncertainty and complexity is investigated in the context of Saab AB; a global producer of products, services and solutions within the defense and civil security industry. Technology-intensive organizations such as Saab, with long product life cycles and contract cycles, need to explore and address growing threats, as well as to identify new horizons, using holistic and interdisciplinary approaches to succeed in uncertain environments.

In order to obtain the objective for this thesis, a qualitative research approach has been adopted. The research strategy consists of three main parts; a literary review, contextual interviews with the case organization, and its surroundings as well as a Delphi study with foresight experts. This has resulted in a conceptual framework for long-term strategic foresight activities in a technology-intensive organization. The framework is divided into six different phases starting from framing and initial gathering of information and resulting in scenario-derived outputs that serve as input to the organizational strategy development. (Less)
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author
Dahlgren, Charlotte LU and Bergman, Katarina LU
supervisor
organization
course
INTM01 20201
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Strategic foresight, Corporate foresight, Long-term foresight, Scenario-planning, Foresight framework, Foresight methodology
language
English
id
9016531
date added to LUP
2020-06-15 10:01:48
date last changed
2020-06-15 10:01:48
@misc{9016531,
  abstract     = {{As global connectivity becomes the driver of value and vulnerability, new concerns are coming into the foreground that needs to be addressed – for example, the resource security-climate nexus, or the means of governing emerging technologies. The broader context and outset for this thesis is the defense and civil security landscape. More specifically, strategic foresight and the increasing challenge of anticipating and predicting the long-term (+20-40 years) future in terms of uncertainty and complexity is investigated in the context of Saab AB; a global producer of products, services and solutions within the defense and civil security industry. Technology-intensive organizations such as Saab, with long product life cycles and contract cycles, need to explore and address growing threats, as well as to identify new horizons, using holistic and interdisciplinary approaches to succeed in uncertain environments.

In order to obtain the objective for this thesis, a qualitative research approach has been adopted. The research strategy consists of three main parts; a literary review, contextual interviews with the case organization, and its surroundings as well as a Delphi study with foresight experts. This has resulted in a conceptual framework for long-term strategic foresight activities in a technology-intensive organization. The framework is divided into six different phases starting from framing and initial gathering of information and resulting in scenario-derived outputs that serve as input to the organizational strategy development.}},
  author       = {{Dahlgren, Charlotte and Bergman, Katarina}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{A Conceptual Framework for Long-Term Strategic Foresight}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}