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Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Affect International Trade?

Lindblad, Madeleine LU and Axelsson, Emma (2020) NEKN01 20201
Department of Economics
Abstract
The aim of this study is to contribute to the existing literature by investigating what to our knowledge is a previously unexplored area, namely if the 1918 Influenza Pandemic - the Spanish flu - had an effect on global trade. The Spanish flu is estimated to have killed 17-100 million people between 1918-1920 (CDC NCIRD, 2018; Roser, 2020). However, the macroeconomic impact of one of the deadliest pandemics in modern history is scarce. In order to capture how severe the flu was across countries we measure how the intensity of the flu, in terms of change in life expectancy as well as mortality rates, varied internationally between 1918 - 1920. These indices are then applied in two differently compiled datasets. The empirical analysis is... (More)
The aim of this study is to contribute to the existing literature by investigating what to our knowledge is a previously unexplored area, namely if the 1918 Influenza Pandemic - the Spanish flu - had an effect on global trade. The Spanish flu is estimated to have killed 17-100 million people between 1918-1920 (CDC NCIRD, 2018; Roser, 2020). However, the macroeconomic impact of one of the deadliest pandemics in modern history is scarce. In order to capture how severe the flu was across countries we measure how the intensity of the flu, in terms of change in life expectancy as well as mortality rates, varied internationally between 1918 - 1920. These indices are then applied in two differently compiled datasets. The empirical analysis is carried out using the gravity model. Based on our results no apparent conclusion can be drawn about the effects on international trade caused by the Spanish flu. (Less)
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author
Lindblad, Madeleine LU and Axelsson, Emma
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20201
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Spanish Influenza, Trade, Fixed effects, Gravity Model, Life expectancy, Mortality, Pandemics, Poisson
language
English
id
9027541
date added to LUP
2020-12-07 10:49:57
date last changed
2020-12-07 10:49:57
@misc{9027541,
  abstract     = {The aim of this study is to contribute to the existing literature by investigating what to our knowledge is a previously unexplored area, namely if the 1918 Influenza Pandemic - the Spanish flu - had an effect on global trade. The Spanish flu is estimated to have killed 17-100 million people between 1918-1920 (CDC NCIRD, 2018; Roser, 2020). However, the macroeconomic impact of one of the deadliest pandemics in modern history is scarce. In order to capture how severe the flu was across countries we measure how the intensity of the flu, in terms of change in life expectancy as well as mortality rates, varied internationally between 1918 - 1920. These indices are then applied in two differently compiled datasets. The empirical analysis is carried out using the gravity model. Based on our results no apparent conclusion can be drawn about the effects on international trade caused by the Spanish flu.},
  author       = {Lindblad, Madeleine and Axelsson, Emma},
  keyword      = {Spanish Influenza,Trade,Fixed effects,Gravity Model,Life expectancy,Mortality,Pandemics,Poisson},
  language     = {eng},
  note         = {Student Paper},
  title        = {Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Affect International Trade?},
  year         = {2020},
}