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How International Election Observers Impact Post-Election Events: The link between international observers, acceptance of results and post-election violence

Björksten, Fredrik LU (2021) STVM25 20211
Department of Political Science
Abstract
Since 1990, international election observers have been travelling the world to monitor and assess close to 1 500 elections in developing democracies. Although often championed as the primary tool of democracy promotion, little is still known about its immediate consequences. In this research, therefore, I explore the relationship between election observers' assessments and domestic electoral reactions. Specifically, I examine the link between an observer condemnation and two post-election events that are crucial for democracy: (a) all losers accepting the results and (b) post-election violence. Analysing data from national elections since 1990 using logistic regression models, my findings strengthen the idea that elections condemned by... (More)
Since 1990, international election observers have been travelling the world to monitor and assess close to 1 500 elections in developing democracies. Although often championed as the primary tool of democracy promotion, little is still known about its immediate consequences. In this research, therefore, I explore the relationship between election observers' assessments and domestic electoral reactions. Specifically, I examine the link between an observer condemnation and two post-election events that are crucial for democracy: (a) all losers accepting the results and (b) post-election violence. Analysing data from national elections since 1990 using logistic regression models, my findings strengthen the idea that elections condemned by observers are more likely to experience that actors refuse to concede, as well as post-election violence – irrespective of characteristics like electoral fraud. At large, I thus conclude that what observers say matters. To their credit, observers' statements align electoral reactions to democratic norms: protest the bad elections, not the good ones. However, the link between observers and violence reveals a potential trade-off: always tell the truth, or minimise the risk of violence. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Björksten, Fredrik LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVM25 20211
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
international election observation, election monitoring, democracy promotion, electoral violence, electoral reactions
language
English
id
9044930
date added to LUP
2021-07-06 11:03:49
date last changed
2021-07-06 11:03:49
@misc{9044930,
  abstract     = {{Since 1990, international election observers have been travelling the world to monitor and assess close to 1 500 elections in developing democracies. Although often championed as the primary tool of democracy promotion, little is still known about its immediate consequences. In this research, therefore, I explore the relationship between election observers' assessments and domestic electoral reactions. Specifically, I examine the link between an observer condemnation and two post-election events that are crucial for democracy: (a) all losers accepting the results and (b) post-election violence. Analysing data from national elections since 1990 using logistic regression models, my findings strengthen the idea that elections condemned by observers are more likely to experience that actors refuse to concede, as well as post-election violence – irrespective of characteristics like electoral fraud. At large, I thus conclude that what observers say matters. To their credit, observers' statements align electoral reactions to democratic norms: protest the bad elections, not the good ones. However, the link between observers and violence reveals a potential trade-off: always tell the truth, or minimise the risk of violence.}},
  author       = {{Björksten, Fredrik}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{How International Election Observers Impact Post-Election Events: The link between international observers, acceptance of results and post-election violence}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}