Linking vulnerability and migration in the rural agricultural communities of Uttarakhand: An exploratory case study

Abstract

The study uses a quantitative methodology to explore the linkages between contextual vulnerability and out-migration in the rural communities of the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, employing OLS linear regression as its main exploratory tool. Five main findings are brought forward: (1) There is a clear positive correlation between the two variables, supporting the possibility of using vulnerability to model out-migration. This is particularly attributed to two factors , the centrality of adaptive capacity and the multicausality of the drivers of migration; (2) The relationship between vulnerability and out-migration is progressively more ambiguous at higher vulnerability levels, supporting the ambiguity of outcomes characterizing migration frameworks and suggesting the effect of some unaccounted variables; (3) As vulnerability increases, migrants tend to become younger, engage more in short-term migration, and increasingly employ migration in response to structural vulnerabilities and livelihood-risk. These findings suggest an increase in risk-reducing migration among the population inhabiting the more vulnerable blocks; (4) Because of out-migration of young, well-educated males, climate change is expected to affect progressively older, less educated, and feminized rural communities, exacerbating already existing vulnerabilities characterizing these groups. The study also highlights a lack of gender disaggregated data on migration as well as a lack of research on marriage-migration; (5) The study highlights the fundamental differences between plain and hill districts in the state, under almost all aspects of vulnerability and migration and suggests the need for treating the two systems separately. This might be of particular importance when considering the wider Indian Himalayan Region.

Popular Abstract

The study uses quantitative methodology to explore the linkages between livelihood vulnerability and out-migration in the rural communities of the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand.
India’s vulnerability to climate change is mainly attributed to its large population inhabiting highly exposed regions. The Himalayan region in particular faces rising temperature and increasingly erratic monsoon rains, threatening rural communities depending on subsistence agriculture as their main source of livelihood, and sometime contributing to the existing migratory movements that characterize the region. Migration in India is a long-established process with historical and cultural roots, which drivers can largely be found in the contextual characteristics of the rural communities. This study investigates linkages between out-migration and livelihood vulnerability of the rural agriculture communities of the Indian state of Uttarakhand, employing linear regression modelling as its main exploratory tool. To this end it utilizes an inherent vulnerability index as predictor, and out-migration as the outcome variable. Later, both variables are unpacked into their sub-components – namely sensitivity and adaptive capacity – as a way to investigate their contribution to the model. Patterns and trends are also explored spatially across altitude and administrative districts. The effects of exposure to droughts are studied via the introduction of an interaction variable to the model. Finally, the study explores three aspects of migration: age of migrants, duration of permanence, and reason for migrating.
But, can a process as complex as migration be modelled? While restraining itself from any rushed conclusion, the study supports this possibility. The findings highlight a clear positive correlation between livelihood vulnerability and outmigration, pinpoint the pivotal role played by agriculture, and shed a light on the risk transforming effects of climate change. Yet, this relation is far from simple, with the findings of this study further evidencing the complex-multicausality of the drivers of migration, and the centrality of adaptive capacity in the process. The results of this research help elucidating the contribution of various indicators to vulnerability and their relationship to aspects of inaccessibility, fragility, and marginality characterizing rural mountain communities. The current analysis also provides further evidence of the ambiguity of outcomes characterizing modern conception of migration, hence supporting a non-deterministic view of this process. Instead, the study shows a progressive increase in variation in out-migration at higher vulnerability levels, suggesting that not all highly vulnerable households might be able or willing to migrate. This hints to the possibility of said communities to effectively become trapped-in populations, forced to face highly vulnerable situations.

The demographic change brought about the migration process has been shaping rural communities by subtracting them of their human capital. The out-migration of young, well-educated males exacerbates already existing vulnerabilities, allowing climate change to affect progressively older, less educated, and feminized rural communities. The findings of this study show how among most vulnerable communities, migrants tend to become younger, less permanent, and increasingly employing migration as strategy to reduce livelihood risk. Nevertheless, the findings of this study also highlight the fundamental differences characterizing almost all aspects of vulnerability and migration between the plain and hill districts of Uttarakhand. This suggests the need for treating the two systems separately when performing livelihood vulnerability assessments or modelling migration. This might be of particular importance for future research, policy, and programs concerning the state of Uttarakhand, or even the wider Indian Himalayan Region.

To conclude, the study lays the groundwork for future migration modelling in the state of Uttarakhand and possibly the Himalayan Region, helping to elucidate relations and dependencies between variables. Yet, the study also highlights the fundamental lack of disaggregated data – especially on gender – and the need for further exploring the adaptive potential of non-labor migration.

• author: Biella, Riccardo
• supervisor: Marcus Abrahamsson
• organization: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• course: VBRM15 20211
• year: 2021
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Social Sciences
• keywords: Migration, Adaptation, India, Inherent vulnerability, Agriculture vulnerability, Livelihood, Linear regression, Trapped population, Hill districts, Rural communities, Mountain specificities, Labor-migration, Marriage-migration
• language: English
• id: 9058143
• date added to LUP: 2021-07-02 16:21:45
• date last changed: 2021-07-02 16:21:45