Modeling large carnivore distribution in European human-dominated landscapes
(2021) BIOM02 20211Degree Projects in Biology
- Abstract
- In the European human-dominated landscapes, large carnivores have recently experienced a return to many areas where they were previously extirpated. The degree of this recovery however varies importantly throughout the continent, and the factors causing this difference remain largely undocumented. I attempted to shed light on this pattern of recovery by developing models of the distribution of the four European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). I used generalized linear models to assess how land cover, human population density, nighttime light, and road coverage affect species distribution at a 10x10 kilometer scale. I also used... (More)
- In the European human-dominated landscapes, large carnivores have recently experienced a return to many areas where they were previously extirpated. The degree of this recovery however varies importantly throughout the continent, and the factors causing this difference remain largely undocumented. I attempted to shed light on this pattern of recovery by developing models of the distribution of the four European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). I used generalized linear models to assess how land cover, human population density, nighttime light, and road coverage affect species distribution at a 10x10 kilometer scale. I also used spatial regression models to assess how modernization, human population density, and motorway density affect the distribution of species at the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level. At the 10x10km scale, I found the species distribution primarily associated with increased forest and seminatural areas, decreased human population density and nighttime light, and a mixed response to road coverage. I also found human population density was also an informative covariate at the NUTS level. These species have shown a varying degree of responses to human pressures, indicating species-specific tolerance, and they have shown an excellent ability to be resilient and persist in a human-dominated landscape. (Less)
- Popular Abstract
- Modeling large carnivore distribution in European human-dominated landscapes
Historically, large carnivores across the world have experienced a continuous decline in numbers and distribution as a consequence of human activities. However, Europe is seeing an increase in its large carnivore populations. The European continent currently hosts four large carnivore species: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). In the European human-dominated landscapes, this conservation success can be broadly attributed to protective legislation, favorable public opinion, and improved habitat conditions together with an increase in ungulate prey density. While many European... (More) - Modeling large carnivore distribution in European human-dominated landscapes
Historically, large carnivores across the world have experienced a continuous decline in numbers and distribution as a consequence of human activities. However, Europe is seeing an increase in its large carnivore populations. The European continent currently hosts four large carnivore species: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). In the European human-dominated landscapes, this conservation success can be broadly attributed to protective legislation, favorable public opinion, and improved habitat conditions together with an increase in ungulate prey density. While many European countries generally share these factors behind the recovery and conservation success of large carnivores, there remains a large discrepancy between countries in the level of this recovery. Accounting for various additional anthropogenic covariates may help us provide a finer scale understanding of this recovery.
I attempted to shed light on these different patterns of recovery by developing models of the distribution of the four European large carnivores using various covariates. I used generalized linear models to assess how land cover, human population density, nighttime light, and road coverage affect species distribution at a 10x10 kilometer scale. I also used spatial regression models to assess how modernization, human population density, and motorway density affect the distribution of species at the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level using the proportion of permanently occupied cells from the 10x10 kilometer distribution of these species. To my knowledge, my study was the first to examine the large-scale effects of nighttime light and modernization on large carnivores, using internet-related purchases as a proxy for modernization.
I found trends in species distribution primarily associated with increased forest and seminatural areas, decreased human population density and nighttime light, and a mixed response to road coverage in the generalized linear models. In addition, the distribution of bears and wolverines were generally more affected by these variables than wolves and lynx. Furthermore, I did not find evidence on the effects of modernization on species distribution but found that human population density was an informative covariate at the NUTS level. This predictor was strongest for the wolf and lynx and to a lesser extent for the bear while having no effect on the wolverine at the NUTS level.
These species have shown varying responses to human pressures which are confirmed in my models, suggesting tolerance is species-specific. However, they have generally shown an excellent ability to be resilient and persist in a human-dominated landscape.
Master’s Degree Project in Biology, 30 credits, 2021
Department of Biology, Lund University
Advisors:
Guillaume Chapron – Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Ecology
Jessica Abbott – Lund University, Department of Biology (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9059875
- author
- Gordon, Jack
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- BIOM02 20211
- year
- 2021
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- language
- English
- id
- 9059875
- date added to LUP
- 2021-06-30 08:26:52
- date last changed
- 2021-06-30 08:26:52
@misc{9059875,
abstract = {{In the European human-dominated landscapes, large carnivores have recently experienced a return to many areas where they were previously extirpated. The degree of this recovery however varies importantly throughout the continent, and the factors causing this difference remain largely undocumented. I attempted to shed light on this pattern of recovery by developing models of the distribution of the four European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the wolverine (Gulo gulo). I used generalized linear models to assess how land cover, human population density, nighttime light, and road coverage affect species distribution at a 10x10 kilometer scale. I also used spatial regression models to assess how modernization, human population density, and motorway density affect the distribution of species at the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) level. At the 10x10km scale, I found the species distribution primarily associated with increased forest and seminatural areas, decreased human population density and nighttime light, and a mixed response to road coverage. I also found human population density was also an informative covariate at the NUTS level. These species have shown a varying degree of responses to human pressures, indicating species-specific tolerance, and they have shown an excellent ability to be resilient and persist in a human-dominated landscape.}},
author = {{Gordon, Jack}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Modeling large carnivore distribution in European human-dominated landscapes}},
year = {{2021}},
}