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From a pandemic to a financial crisis?

Nyberg, Lykke LU and Stertman, Alexandra LU (2022) NEKH02 20212
Department of Economics
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to create a model that can predict the probability of a financial crisis and apply it to the Swedish economy of today. Using a logistical regression model, a quantitative study is conducted by investigating a cross-sectional data set covering 18 countries stretching over approximately 150 years. Seven macroeconomic and financial variables were found significant. Variables found significant include Credit to GDP, Stock Prices, and Current Account amongst others. A multivariate regression model is designed to predict the probability of a financial crisis in Sweden, analyzing data between the years 1980 - 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic is still taunting the world with its presence and has considerable effects... (More)
The main objective of this study is to create a model that can predict the probability of a financial crisis and apply it to the Swedish economy of today. Using a logistical regression model, a quantitative study is conducted by investigating a cross-sectional data set covering 18 countries stretching over approximately 150 years. Seven macroeconomic and financial variables were found significant. Variables found significant include Credit to GDP, Stock Prices, and Current Account amongst others. A multivariate regression model is designed to predict the probability of a financial crisis in Sweden, analyzing data between the years 1980 - 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic is still taunting the world with its presence and has considerable effects on the Swedish economy of today. Predictors of financial crises have been affected by the pandemic and led to the notion that we might be exchanging a pandemic for a financial crisis. Results from created models indicated that Sweden is moving towards a crisis in the near future. (Less)
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author
Nyberg, Lykke LU and Stertman, Alexandra LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20212
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Financial crises, Regression analysis, Covid-19 pandemic, Logistic regression model, Swedish economy
language
English
id
9072753
date added to LUP
2022-02-03 08:16:20
date last changed
2022-02-11 15:19:52
@misc{9072753,
  abstract     = {{The main objective of this study is to create a model that can predict the probability of a financial crisis and apply it to the Swedish economy of today. Using a logistical regression model, a quantitative study is conducted by investigating a cross-sectional data set covering 18 countries stretching over approximately 150 years. Seven macroeconomic and financial variables were found significant. Variables found significant include Credit to GDP, Stock Prices, and Current Account amongst others. A multivariate regression model is designed to predict the probability of a financial crisis in Sweden, analyzing data between the years 1980 - 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic is still taunting the world with its presence and has considerable effects on the Swedish economy of today. Predictors of financial crises have been affected by the pandemic and led to the notion that we might be exchanging a pandemic for a financial crisis. Results from created models indicated that Sweden is moving towards a crisis in the near future.}},
  author       = {{Nyberg, Lykke and Stertman, Alexandra}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{From a pandemic to a financial crisis?}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}