The fiscal impact of population aging in Lithuania: 2020-2100
(2022) EKHS01 20221Department of Economic History
- Abstract
- In the last few decades, the population in Lithuania has been gradually becoming older due to a combination of the declining fertility rate, negative net migration, and rising life expectancy. It is estimated that this process will be even more rapid in the future, as it is projected that by the year 2100 the share of elderly people over 65 will increase by 84%, whilst the working-age population (15-64) will decline by 48%. The question arises what are the long-term implications of population aging in Lithuania on the current pension and health care systems. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model based on the Eurostat and the World Bank datasets during the years 1995-2019 this thesis aims to project pension and health care... (More)
- In the last few decades, the population in Lithuania has been gradually becoming older due to a combination of the declining fertility rate, negative net migration, and rising life expectancy. It is estimated that this process will be even more rapid in the future, as it is projected that by the year 2100 the share of elderly people over 65 will increase by 84%, whilst the working-age population (15-64) will decline by 48%. The question arises what are the long-term implications of population aging in Lithuania on the current pension and health care systems. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model based on the Eurostat and the World Bank datasets during the years 1995-2019 this thesis aims to project pension and health care expenditures in Lithuania for the period 2020-2050 and evaluate if the population aging will put pressure on the government budget. The analysis revealed the long-term tendency toward increasing health care and pension expenditures per capita which would exceed economic growth in Lithuania. This thesis encourages repeating empirical research after additional data becomes available, as it
would allow exploring how the latest pension system reforms affect pension expenditure and shock to the health care expenditure due to the COVID-19 pandemic influences demographic situation and other age-related public spending. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9092627
- author
- Lekstyte, Juste LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- EKHS01 20221
- year
- 2022
- type
- H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
- subject
- language
- English
- id
- 9092627
- date added to LUP
- 2022-06-28 10:00:23
- date last changed
- 2022-06-28 10:00:23
@misc{9092627,
abstract = {{In the last few decades, the population in Lithuania has been gradually becoming older due to a combination of the declining fertility rate, negative net migration, and rising life expectancy. It is estimated that this process will be even more rapid in the future, as it is projected that by the year 2100 the share of elderly people over 65 will increase by 84%, whilst the working-age population (15-64) will decline by 48%. The question arises what are the long-term implications of population aging in Lithuania on the current pension and health care systems. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model based on the Eurostat and the World Bank datasets during the years 1995-2019 this thesis aims to project pension and health care expenditures in Lithuania for the period 2020-2050 and evaluate if the population aging will put pressure on the government budget. The analysis revealed the long-term tendency toward increasing health care and pension expenditures per capita which would exceed economic growth in Lithuania. This thesis encourages repeating empirical research after additional data becomes available, as it
would allow exploring how the latest pension system reforms affect pension expenditure and shock to the health care expenditure due to the COVID-19 pandemic influences demographic situation and other age-related public spending.}},
author = {{Lekstyte, Juste}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{The fiscal impact of population aging in Lithuania: 2020-2100}},
year = {{2022}},
}