Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

Statistical Analysis of Organized Attacks in Football

Wahlström, Håkan LU (2022) In Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences FMSM01 20221
Mathematical Statistics
Abstract
This report investigates what defensive and attacking strategies are most efficient in an organized attack situation in football. Defensive shape, defending player synchronizations, number of passes, types of passes and other variables are tested to see which methods statistically generate more and better goal scoring opportunities. Data from the Eredevise (highest Dutch football division) 2021/2022 season is investigated where organized attack attempts are found. The data is then filtered to find defensive and attacking team characteristics of each attack attempt respectively. Three regression methods are then used to statistically analyse what strategies are the best pre- dictors for whether an attack is successful.
In the Eredevise... (More)
This report investigates what defensive and attacking strategies are most efficient in an organized attack situation in football. Defensive shape, defending player synchronizations, number of passes, types of passes and other variables are tested to see which methods statistically generate more and better goal scoring opportunities. Data from the Eredevise (highest Dutch football division) 2021/2022 season is investigated where organized attack attempts are found. The data is then filtered to find defensive and attacking team characteristics of each attack attempt respectively. Three regression methods are then used to statistically analyse what strategies are the best pre- dictors for whether an attack is successful.
In the Eredevise 2021/2022 season, playing crosses was the best way to improve quality of chances created and a good way to create more chances. Keeping a high movement speed among the players playing in attacking positions also tends to generate more and better chances. From a defending team perspective, moving synchronously and spreading out the team over greater areas are good ways to prevent opponents from scoring. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Wahlström, Håkan LU
supervisor
organization
course
FMSM01 20221
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Football, linear regression, logistic regression, data analytics, ajax
publication/series
Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences
report number
LUTFMS-3457-2022
ISSN
1404-6342
other publication id
2022:E61
language
English
id
9096733
date added to LUP
2022-08-08 09:16:51
date last changed
2022-08-08 09:16:51
@misc{9096733,
  abstract     = {{This report investigates what defensive and attacking strategies are most efficient in an organized attack situation in football. Defensive shape, defending player synchronizations, number of passes, types of passes and other variables are tested to see which methods statistically generate more and better goal scoring opportunities. Data from the Eredevise (highest Dutch football division) 2021/2022 season is investigated where organized attack attempts are found. The data is then filtered to find defensive and attacking team characteristics of each attack attempt respectively. Three regression methods are then used to statistically analyse what strategies are the best pre- dictors for whether an attack is successful.
In the Eredevise 2021/2022 season, playing crosses was the best way to improve quality of chances created and a good way to create more chances. Keeping a high movement speed among the players playing in attacking positions also tends to generate more and better chances. From a defending team perspective, moving synchronously and spreading out the team over greater areas are good ways to prevent opponents from scoring.}},
  author       = {{Wahlström, Håkan}},
  issn         = {{1404-6342}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Master's Thesis in Mathematical Sciences}},
  title        = {{Statistical Analysis of Organized Attacks in Football}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}