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An investigation of the Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and Violent Crime in Europe and Central Asia

Karlsson, Saga LU (2022) NEKN01 20221
Department of Economics
Abstract
One of the most harmful social issues throughout the world is crime, making it an important
subject to research. This essay investigates the relationship between violent crime and oil prices
in Europe and Central Asia. The relationship is less researched than crime and other
socioeconomic variables such as unemployment and economic growth. The casual relationship
is tested using the PVAR model and the program developed by Abrigo and Love (2016) for
STATA was used for the regression. The crimes that were evaluated was homicides, sexual
violence, robbery, and assault. The data spans from 1990 to 2020 and it has primarily been
obtained from The World Bank, Statista, and UNODC.

The results showed that assault had a statistically... (More)
One of the most harmful social issues throughout the world is crime, making it an important
subject to research. This essay investigates the relationship between violent crime and oil prices
in Europe and Central Asia. The relationship is less researched than crime and other
socioeconomic variables such as unemployment and economic growth. The casual relationship
is tested using the PVAR model and the program developed by Abrigo and Love (2016) for
STATA was used for the regression. The crimes that were evaluated was homicides, sexual
violence, robbery, and assault. The data spans from 1990 to 2020 and it has primarily been
obtained from The World Bank, Statista, and UNODC.

The results showed that assault had a statistically significant positive relationship with oil
prices. If oil prices increase with 1% the one year lagged assault rates increase with 0.38%. For
countries with oil reserves the lagged assault increase is 0.67% and for countries without oil
reserves, the lagged assault increase is 0.35%. The other types of violent crime were not
significantly affected by changes in oil prices. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Karlsson, Saga LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20221
year
type
H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
subject
keywords
Crime, Oil Prices, Panel Vector Autoregression, PVAR
language
English
id
9100287
date added to LUP
2022-10-10 09:22:34
date last changed
2022-10-10 09:22:34
@misc{9100287,
  abstract     = {{One of the most harmful social issues throughout the world is crime, making it an important
subject to research. This essay investigates the relationship between violent crime and oil prices
in Europe and Central Asia. The relationship is less researched than crime and other
socioeconomic variables such as unemployment and economic growth. The casual relationship
is tested using the PVAR model and the program developed by Abrigo and Love (2016) for
STATA was used for the regression. The crimes that were evaluated was homicides, sexual
violence, robbery, and assault. The data spans from 1990 to 2020 and it has primarily been
obtained from The World Bank, Statista, and UNODC.

The results showed that assault had a statistically significant positive relationship with oil
prices. If oil prices increase with 1% the one year lagged assault rates increase with 0.38%. For
countries with oil reserves the lagged assault increase is 0.67% and for countries without oil
reserves, the lagged assault increase is 0.35%. The other types of violent crime were not
significantly affected by changes in oil prices.}},
  author       = {{Karlsson, Saga}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{An investigation of the Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and Violent Crime in Europe and Central Asia}},
  year         = {{2022}},
}