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Negativa utbudsstörningars påverkan på konsumentprisinflationen i Sverige mellan 1998–2022

Axner, Oskar LU (2023) NEKH03 20222
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in
the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1-
2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two
hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive
impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a
small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value
chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3.... (More)
This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in
the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1-
2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two
hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive
impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a
small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value
chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3. In the
period that excludes the pandemic the impact has been significantly smaller. Due to large
deviations in the long-term and short-term effects between the two periods, further research is
deemed to be needed with regards to the impact of disruptions in the global value chains. The
result from this study suggests that global factors should be of interest with regards to the design
of the Swedish monetary policy framework. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Axner, Oskar LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH03 20222
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
inflation, oil price, global value chains, supply chain disruptions.
language
Swedish
id
9109142
date added to LUP
2023-06-07 10:48:22
date last changed
2023-06-07 10:48:22
@misc{9109142,
  abstract     = {{This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in 
the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1-
2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two 
hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive 
impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a 
small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the 
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value 
chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3. In the 
period that excludes the pandemic the impact has been significantly smaller. Due to large 
deviations in the long-term and short-term effects between the two periods, further research is 
deemed to be needed with regards to the impact of disruptions in the global value chains. The 
result from this study suggests that global factors should be of interest with regards to the design 
of the Swedish monetary policy framework.}},
  author       = {{Axner, Oskar}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Negativa utbudsstörningars påverkan på konsumentprisinflationen i Sverige mellan 1998–2022}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}