Negativa utbudsstörningars påverkan på konsumentprisinflationen i Sverige mellan 1998–2022
(2023) NEKH03 20222Department of Economics
- Abstract
- This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in
the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1-
2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two
hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive
impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a
small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value
chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3.... (More) - This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in
the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1-
2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two
hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive
impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a
small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the
pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value
chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3. In the
period that excludes the pandemic the impact has been significantly smaller. Due to large
deviations in the long-term and short-term effects between the two periods, further research is
deemed to be needed with regards to the impact of disruptions in the global value chains. The
result from this study suggests that global factors should be of interest with regards to the design
of the Swedish monetary policy framework. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9109142
- author
- Axner, Oskar LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NEKH03 20222
- year
- 2023
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- inflation, oil price, global value chains, supply chain disruptions.
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 9109142
- date added to LUP
- 2023-06-07 10:48:22
- date last changed
- 2023-06-07 10:48:22
@misc{9109142, abstract = {{This paper examines how negative supply shocks in the form of the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have affected Swedish consumer price inflation in two periods: 1998Q1- 2022Q3 and 1998Q1-2019Q4. The results from the time series regressions supports the two hypotheses that both the oil price and disruptions in the global value chains have a positive impact on consumer price inflation. However, an increase in the oil price seemingly has had a small effect on CPI-inflation in both periods, somewhat higher in the period that includes the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, disruptions in the global value chains are shown to have had a big impact on CPI-inflation during 1998Q1-2022Q3. In the period that excludes the pandemic the impact has been significantly smaller. Due to large deviations in the long-term and short-term effects between the two periods, further research is deemed to be needed with regards to the impact of disruptions in the global value chains. The result from this study suggests that global factors should be of interest with regards to the design of the Swedish monetary policy framework.}}, author = {{Axner, Oskar}}, language = {{swe}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{Negativa utbudsstörningars påverkan på konsumentprisinflationen i Sverige mellan 1998–2022}}, year = {{2023}}, }