Kartläggning och analys av Skånes elförsörjning
(2023) VRSM01 20221Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.)
Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
- Abstract
- In Sweden there has been an increasing power shortage recently, especially in the region of Scania, which has resulted in escalating electricity prices and in turn a public will to fix the problem. The situation is a result of the existing electricity production being decommissioned or replaced by more variable alternatives together with the fact that electricity transmission from other parts of Sweden, and abroad, is limited.
With this background the master thesis aimed at deciding what factors that are and will be having the largest effect on the electricity supply in Scania, both today and around 2030. Moreover, the intention was to investigate how these factors affect the vulnerability in delivery reliability of electricity, both... (More) - In Sweden there has been an increasing power shortage recently, especially in the region of Scania, which has resulted in escalating electricity prices and in turn a public will to fix the problem. The situation is a result of the existing electricity production being decommissioned or replaced by more variable alternatives together with the fact that electricity transmission from other parts of Sweden, and abroad, is limited.
With this background the master thesis aimed at deciding what factors that are and will be having the largest effect on the electricity supply in Scania, both today and around 2030. Moreover, the intention was to investigate how these factors affect the vulnerability in delivery reliability of electricity, both from a national and Scanian perspective. Finally, there was also an ambition to relate the vulnerabili-ties to potential societal effects and highlight what is being done and can be done to curb the negative development.
To meet this purpose, two main methods were conducted in this master’s thesis, namely a literature study and modulation and simulation. Data from the literature study was used to modulate eleven different scenarios for the Swedish electricity system, both based on today’s situation and estimated future situations. Based on the scenarios, vulnerability in the Swedish electricity system was simulat-ed and analyzed using the two perspectives, global vulnerability, and critical components. The pur-pose with these analyses was to determine how the electricity system responds to an increasing dis-ruption and what components that are most vital for its function. The simulations were performed using the computer program MATLAB in which consequences were presented in terms of power not supplied (MW).
From the simulations it was observed how the electric power situation during the hour with peak consumption, around 2030, seems to worsen compared to the situation today, especially for Scania. Furthermore, the most negative consequences were obtained when simulating scenarios correspond-ing to no available nuclear power and no electricity import from southern Europe. The results also showed how the consequences in Scania, in these scenarios, were considerably worse compared to the consequences nationally, especially for the disruptions resulting in the largest consequences. All these scenarios highlight how the Scanian electricity supply, in 2030, is expected to be considerably more vulnerable compared to what the electricity supply in the rest of the country, on average, is expected to be. In addition, the simulations also illustrated how the scenario with increased user flex-ibility together with hydrogen storage seems to limit the negative consequences the most among the different possible actions identified in the literature study, even if data in this scenario was consid-ered uncertain.
Based on the literature study and the performed simulations, the planned actions until 2030 are per-ceived inadequate to result in an improved delivery reliability in electricity supply for Scania. Conse-quently, the electricity price will likely remain high for a considerable amount of time which risks undermining the will for companies to establish and individuals to settle in the region. An impaired delivery reliability for electricity also adventures the function of critical infrastructure, that are neces-sary for a functional society, and consequently jeopardizes important societal values.
To avoid this development, based on the literature study, it seems wise to implement actions that aims to improve the communication and collaboration between actors related to the electricity supply in Scania, promote existing electricity production in the region as well as facilitating the construction of new production facilities. At the same time, user flexibility combined with hydrogen storage ap-peared to be the most efficient measure for improving the situation in Scania, according to the simu-lations. However, the data which this scenario was based on was uncertain and therefore future re-search could focus on the potential for this measure to secure the delivery reliability in the Scanian electricity supply. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9111550
- author
- Fransson, Elias LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- VRSM01 20221
- year
- 2023
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Electricity supply, vulnerability, Skåne.
- language
- Swedish
- id
- 9111550
- date added to LUP
- 2023-03-03 15:16:32
- date last changed
- 2023-03-03 15:16:32
@misc{9111550,
abstract = {{In Sweden there has been an increasing power shortage recently, especially in the region of Scania, which has resulted in escalating electricity prices and in turn a public will to fix the problem. The situation is a result of the existing electricity production being decommissioned or replaced by more variable alternatives together with the fact that electricity transmission from other parts of Sweden, and abroad, is limited.
With this background the master thesis aimed at deciding what factors that are and will be having the largest effect on the electricity supply in Scania, both today and around 2030. Moreover, the intention was to investigate how these factors affect the vulnerability in delivery reliability of electricity, both from a national and Scanian perspective. Finally, there was also an ambition to relate the vulnerabili-ties to potential societal effects and highlight what is being done and can be done to curb the negative development.
To meet this purpose, two main methods were conducted in this master’s thesis, namely a literature study and modulation and simulation. Data from the literature study was used to modulate eleven different scenarios for the Swedish electricity system, both based on today’s situation and estimated future situations. Based on the scenarios, vulnerability in the Swedish electricity system was simulat-ed and analyzed using the two perspectives, global vulnerability, and critical components. The pur-pose with these analyses was to determine how the electricity system responds to an increasing dis-ruption and what components that are most vital for its function. The simulations were performed using the computer program MATLAB in which consequences were presented in terms of power not supplied (MW).
From the simulations it was observed how the electric power situation during the hour with peak consumption, around 2030, seems to worsen compared to the situation today, especially for Scania. Furthermore, the most negative consequences were obtained when simulating scenarios correspond-ing to no available nuclear power and no electricity import from southern Europe. The results also showed how the consequences in Scania, in these scenarios, were considerably worse compared to the consequences nationally, especially for the disruptions resulting in the largest consequences. All these scenarios highlight how the Scanian electricity supply, in 2030, is expected to be considerably more vulnerable compared to what the electricity supply in the rest of the country, on average, is expected to be. In addition, the simulations also illustrated how the scenario with increased user flex-ibility together with hydrogen storage seems to limit the negative consequences the most among the different possible actions identified in the literature study, even if data in this scenario was consid-ered uncertain.
Based on the literature study and the performed simulations, the planned actions until 2030 are per-ceived inadequate to result in an improved delivery reliability in electricity supply for Scania. Conse-quently, the electricity price will likely remain high for a considerable amount of time which risks undermining the will for companies to establish and individuals to settle in the region. An impaired delivery reliability for electricity also adventures the function of critical infrastructure, that are neces-sary for a functional society, and consequently jeopardizes important societal values.
To avoid this development, based on the literature study, it seems wise to implement actions that aims to improve the communication and collaboration between actors related to the electricity supply in Scania, promote existing electricity production in the region as well as facilitating the construction of new production facilities. At the same time, user flexibility combined with hydrogen storage ap-peared to be the most efficient measure for improving the situation in Scania, according to the simu-lations. However, the data which this scenario was based on was uncertain and therefore future re-search could focus on the potential for this measure to secure the delivery reliability in the Scanian electricity supply.}},
author = {{Fransson, Elias}},
language = {{swe}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Kartläggning och analys av Skånes elförsörjning}},
year = {{2023}},
}