Recommendations for Improving the Use of Risk Matrices in Coarse Risk Analyses

Abstract

Risk matrices are tables with rows representing consequences, and columns representing frequencies. The risk matrix is considered a simple and convenient tool for visualizing risk. However, it has faced critique from the scientific community. Though risk matrices are extensively applied in practice for visualizing results from coarse risk analyses, there is limited research regarding guidance on its use. This thesis therefore aims to add to the currently limited guidance, considering suitability to practical applications. Recommendations for improving the use of risk matrices were identified through a litterature study, documentation study and interviews. From the literature study, 15 recommendations emerged. By studying the documentation and answers provided from interviews, six out of 15 recommendations were deemed practically suitable in the context of coarse risk analyses:

● Make users aware of the limitations of the matrix and highlight difficulties. Be clear on the fact that the risk matrix may not be the best tool for decision making, but rather one of many methods supporting decision making. View the tool with scepticism in mind.
● Make the risk matrix more comprehensible through a few simple visual improvements.
● Provide guidelines on the use of risk matrices for events with several consequence categories.
● Clarify how risks that have the same score/position in the matrix should be prioritized.
● Establish risk matrices with decision makers risk appetite in mind.
● Do not have a large variety of risk matrices within one company and industry, if there are not different risk appetites or clear motivations.

Popular Abstract

Improve your risk matrix for the next coarse risk analysis!




Imagine putting in a lot of hard work in your risk analysis - just to present the results in an inferior way… One tool used to present results from coarse risk analyses is the risk matrix. The risk matrix is praised for its simplicity in the industry, whilst also getting a lot of critique from the scientific community. Simultaneously, it is lacking guidance on how to use it properly. But fear not - this thesis has provided six recommendations for improving the use of the risk matrix in coarse risk analyses. The identified recommendations include increased awareness of the tool’s limitations and difficulties, simple design improvements to increase comprehension and increased clarifications for some specific situations. To ensure high quality, the recommendations have been selected based on the latest science. They have also been filtered through the minds and work of experts, to find the recommendations deemed practically suitable to the context. It turns out that preservation of simplicity, user friendliness and time efficiency are crucial factors according to experts. Hence, trying to improve the risk matrix by making it more complex or requiring more analysis time is not considered practical.

Almost every day a coarse risk analysis is performed somewhere in the world. Maybe there is a new chemical plant being built, or a change in the design of an oil platform. The results from coarse risk analyses can be illustrated using a risk matrix. It is a table consisting of columns representing consequences, and rows representing frequencies. Each scenario identified in a risk analysis is plotted into the risk matrix based on its assessed consequence and frequency. Sounds like a good way to present results? Yes, according to the industry - no according to the scientific community, which present an array of criticism of the tool. Simultaneously, guidance is lacking on how to use the risk matrix properly. In this thesis, the aim was to add to the currently limited guidance on the use of the risk matrix in the context of coarse risk analyses. This in order to improve the use of the appreciated tool.

To identify and ensure high quality of recommendations for improvement of the use of the risk matrix, a literature study was performed. From the literature, widely different suggestions for improvements were found. These range from advanced mathematical theories to simply increasing awareness of the tool’s limitations. But how does one know which of the proposed recommendations are suitable in practice?



To put the recommendations in a practical context, one must understand how the risk matrix is used in real life. This was done by studying documentation of a wide array of risk matrices and their use within coarse risk analyses. Further, the proposals for improvement from literature were presented to a number of experts who work with risk matrices in different ways. Their opinions regarding the proposals were identified through interviews. Based on the documentation and opinions of the experts, a number of improvement recommendations were sifted out. These were hence deemed suitable both by researchers in theory and by experts in practice. The recommendations are summarized below:
• Make designers, risk assessors and decision makers aware of the limitations of the tool.
• Make the risk matrix more comprehensible through a few simple visual improvements.
• Provide guidelines on the use of risk matrix in case of an event with several types of consequences (health, environment, economic). Be clear on which consequence is assessed.
• Clarify how risks in the same position in the matrix should be prioritized.
• Establish the risk matrix with decision maker’s risk appetites in mind.
• Do not have a large variety of risk matrices within the same company and industry, if it is not clearly motivated.
Recommendations dismissed shared the following common characteristics:
• Not practical due to time constraints.
• Made the matrix too complex and decreased user friendliness.
• Brought forward even more uncertainty.
• Other easier means could be used for the same purpose.
• Could skew results.
So - keep it simple and improve your risk matrix with the above six recommendations!

• author: Selitski, Olga and Roos, Esko
• supervisor: Henrik Hassel
• organization: Risk Management and Safety Engineering (M.Sc.Eng.); Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• alternative title: Rekommendationer för en förbättrad användning av riskmatriser i grova riskanalyser
• course: VRSM01 20231
• year: 2023
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Risk Matrix, Coarse Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment, Probability-Consequence Diagram, Guidance, Guidelines, Recommendations, Improvement.
• language: English
• id: 9112545
• date added to LUP: 2023-03-31 07:22:26
• date last changed: 2023-03-31 07:22:26