Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

A polycrisis of climate change, food insecurity, socioeconomic inequality, and conflict intensity? A statistical analysis of interrelated crises.

Linnér, Alva LU (2023) SIMZ31 20231
Graduate School
Abstract
Along with escalating climate change impacts, aggravated hunger and malnutrition, and widening socioeconomic disparities, recent decades have also seen increased casualties during intrastate conflicts. The aim of this thesis is accordingly to investigate the interactions among climate vulnerability, food insecurity, and socioeconomic inequality and their effects on conflict intensity. The research problem was approached by conducting multiple linear regression analyses at the world and regional levels, including 84 countries and covering the 2002–2021 period. This thesis finds that both food insecurity and socioeconomic inequality have significantly affected the conflict intensity of intrastate conflicts at the world level. The statistical... (More)
Along with escalating climate change impacts, aggravated hunger and malnutrition, and widening socioeconomic disparities, recent decades have also seen increased casualties during intrastate conflicts. The aim of this thesis is accordingly to investigate the interactions among climate vulnerability, food insecurity, and socioeconomic inequality and their effects on conflict intensity. The research problem was approached by conducting multiple linear regression analyses at the world and regional levels, including 84 countries and covering the 2002–2021 period. This thesis finds that both food insecurity and socioeconomic inequality have significantly affected the conflict intensity of intrastate conflicts at the world level. The statistical analysis demonstrates that these correlations are exacerbated when they interact with climate vulnerability. The regional analyses present more mixed results. The results are discussed in light of theories of greed versus grievance as well as environmental scarcity and conflict. I conclude that while grievances due to human insecurity and inequality have driven the intensification of civil wars, climate vulnerability stands to exacerbate these grievances. The thesis concludes that in a world facing mounting polycrises, understanding their interactions is vital in order to establish positive conditions and lasting peace. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Linnér, Alva LU
supervisor
organization
course
SIMZ31 20231
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
conflict intensity, climate vulnerability, food insecurity, socioeconomic inequality, greed versus grievances, environmental scarcity and conflict.
language
English
id
9123453
date added to LUP
2023-06-21 14:18:10
date last changed
2023-06-21 14:18:10
@misc{9123453,
  abstract     = {{Along with escalating climate change impacts, aggravated hunger and malnutrition, and widening socioeconomic disparities, recent decades have also seen increased casualties during intrastate conflicts. The aim of this thesis is accordingly to investigate the interactions among climate vulnerability, food insecurity, and socioeconomic inequality and their effects on conflict intensity. The research problem was approached by conducting multiple linear regression analyses at the world and regional levels, including 84 countries and covering the 2002–2021 period. This thesis finds that both food insecurity and socioeconomic inequality have significantly affected the conflict intensity of intrastate conflicts at the world level. The statistical analysis demonstrates that these correlations are exacerbated when they interact with climate vulnerability. The regional analyses present more mixed results. The results are discussed in light of theories of greed versus grievance as well as environmental scarcity and conflict. I conclude that while grievances due to human insecurity and inequality have driven the intensification of civil wars, climate vulnerability stands to exacerbate these grievances. The thesis concludes that in a world facing mounting polycrises, understanding their interactions is vital in order to establish positive conditions and lasting peace.}},
  author       = {{Linnér, Alva}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{A polycrisis of climate change, food insecurity, socioeconomic inequality, and conflict intensity? A statistical analysis of interrelated crises.}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}