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Evaluation of the effect of conflict on fire and GPP in Ukraine

Kastens, Lilith LU (2023) In Student thesis series INES NGEK01 20231
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
The war in Ukraine in 2022 has caused environmental damages on different scales which come with
their own challenges. One of the factors that can cause environmental damage is vegetation fire. As
earlier studies have concluded, in conflict regions the amount of vegetation fires can increase due to
(forced) migration, change in agriculture and warfare tactics. Not only conflict can change fire
occurrence but also the climate. Climate is predicted to change more dramatically in most regions of
the world due to climate change. Ukraine has been already experiencing climate change in terms of for
instance temperature increase by 1.5°C (average air temperature 9.3°C) over the last 30 years and the
change in precipitation patterns.... (More)
The war in Ukraine in 2022 has caused environmental damages on different scales which come with
their own challenges. One of the factors that can cause environmental damage is vegetation fire. As
earlier studies have concluded, in conflict regions the amount of vegetation fires can increase due to
(forced) migration, change in agriculture and warfare tactics. Not only conflict can change fire
occurrence but also the climate. Climate is predicted to change more dramatically in most regions of
the world due to climate change. Ukraine has been already experiencing climate change in terms of for
instance temperature increase by 1.5°C (average air temperature 9.3°C) over the last 30 years and the
change in precipitation patterns. Moreover, Ukraine was invaded by Russia in February 2022.
In this report the evaluation of fire (VIIRS Active Fire) and the change in GPP (MODIS Gross Primary
Productivity) caused by armed conflict (UCDP) was done. It has been concluded even though fire and
conflict are not correlated according to the spearman rank correlation analysis (ρ = 0.30, p > 0.05), the
Bivariate Local Moran’s I Analysis shows a temporal and spatial correlation in the year 2020, 2021 and
2022. Furthermore, the fires during 2022 and 2020 are in comparison to 2021 not primarily on
agricultural land but more spread out into forests. The analysis of the change in GPP during the years
2020, 2021 and 2022 show no specific pattern that can be linked to conflict, but the GPP has decreased
from 2021 to 2022. The analysis is complemented with a discussion of the results. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Kastens, Lilith LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEK01 20231
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Climate Change, Armed Conflict, Fire, GPP, Remote Sensing, Russia-Ukraine War
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
597
language
English
id
9124423
date added to LUP
2023-06-13 12:48:36
date last changed
2023-06-13 12:48:36
@misc{9124423,
  abstract     = {{The war in Ukraine in 2022 has caused environmental damages on different scales which come with
their own challenges. One of the factors that can cause environmental damage is vegetation fire. As
earlier studies have concluded, in conflict regions the amount of vegetation fires can increase due to
(forced) migration, change in agriculture and warfare tactics. Not only conflict can change fire
occurrence but also the climate. Climate is predicted to change more dramatically in most regions of
the world due to climate change. Ukraine has been already experiencing climate change in terms of for
instance temperature increase by 1.5°C (average air temperature 9.3°C) over the last 30 years and the
change in precipitation patterns. Moreover, Ukraine was invaded by Russia in February 2022.
In this report the evaluation of fire (VIIRS Active Fire) and the change in GPP (MODIS Gross Primary
Productivity) caused by armed conflict (UCDP) was done. It has been concluded even though fire and
conflict are not correlated according to the spearman rank correlation analysis (ρ = 0.30, p > 0.05), the
Bivariate Local Moran’s I Analysis shows a temporal and spatial correlation in the year 2020, 2021 and
2022. Furthermore, the fires during 2022 and 2020 are in comparison to 2021 not primarily on
agricultural land but more spread out into forests. The analysis of the change in GPP during the years
2020, 2021 and 2022 show no specific pattern that can be linked to conflict, but the GPP has decreased
from 2021 to 2022. The analysis is complemented with a discussion of the results.}},
  author       = {{Kastens, Lilith}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Student thesis series INES}},
  title        = {{Evaluation of the effect of conflict on fire and GPP in Ukraine}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}