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Forest growth under future climate change in the context of bioenergy – case studies of combined heat and power plants in Sweden

Hui, Chi Yuen LU (2023) In Student thesis series INES NGEM01 20231
Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
Abstract
The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has pushed for new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). While bioenergy is a relatively mature industry in Sweden, the addition of CCS may increase the demand for local biomass. Furthermore, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth.

This thesis aims to fill in the gaps of future forest growth under warming climate, specifically under the context of BECCS being implemented in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. It was assumed that these plants will source forest residues from Swedish forest as... (More)
The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has pushed for new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). While bioenergy is a relatively mature industry in Sweden, the addition of CCS may increase the demand for local biomass. Furthermore, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth.

This thesis aims to fill in the gaps of future forest growth under warming climate, specifically under the context of BECCS being implemented in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. It was assumed that these plants will source forest residues from Swedish forest as their major fuel.

The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS was applied to simulate current and future forest growth under changing climates. It was found that standing volume could increase approximately 30% in Northern and Central Sweden, which could be beneficial to the CHP plants there. But the outlook for Southern Sweden was less positive, with smaller increase of standing volume for pine trees and potentially up to 10% decrease of standing volume for spruce trees. This suggests that an alternative fuel may be desired for CHP plants in Southern Sweden.

The potential negative impacts of removing forest residues were also discussed. It was suggested that comprehensive, thorough investigation be performed before moving ahead with sourcing forest residues to ensure the sustainability of such alternative is well-maintained. (Less)
Popular Abstract
The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has led to the development of new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). Sweden already has a well-established bioenergy industry, and now there is interest in adding CCS technology, which could increase the demand for local biomass. In addition, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth.

This thesis aims to understand how forests will grow in the future under a warming climate, especially in the context of implementing BECCS in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. These plants are expected to... (More)
The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has led to the development of new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). Sweden already has a well-established bioenergy industry, and now there is interest in adding CCS technology, which could increase the demand for local biomass. In addition, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth.

This thesis aims to understand how forests will grow in the future under a warming climate, especially in the context of implementing BECCS in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. These plants are expected to use forest residues as their main fuel source.

The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS was applied to imitate the growth of forests in different parts of Sweden, considering the changing climate. The findings showed that forest growth is likely to increase in Northern and Central Sweden, which is good news for the CHP plants in those regions. However, the outlook for Southern Sweden was not as positive, suggesting that alternative fuel sources might be needed there.

The report also discusses the potential negative impacts of removing forest residues for biomass. The importance of conducting thorough investigations before moving forward with using forest residues as fuel was also highlighted to ensure the broader topic of sustainability is not ignored. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hui, Chi Yuen LU
supervisor
organization
course
NGEM01 20231
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Physical Geography, Climate Change, Ecosystem Modelling, LPJ-GUESS, BECCS, Geomatics
publication/series
Student thesis series INES
report number
624
language
English
additional info
External supervisor: Gregor Vulturius, Climate & Sustainable Finance, SEB
id
9133514
date added to LUP
2023-08-05 21:36:24
date last changed
2023-08-05 21:36:24
@misc{9133514,
  abstract     = {{The pressure to achieve net-zero emissions has pushed for new technologies including carbon capture and storage (CCS) based on the combustion of biomass (BECCS). While bioenergy is a relatively mature industry in Sweden, the addition of CCS may increase the demand for local biomass. Furthermore, previous studies on the potential of BECCS in Sweden have not considered the impacts of climate change of future forest growth.

This thesis aims to fill in the gaps of future forest growth under warming climate, specifically under the context of BECCS being implemented in Swedish industry. Three combined heat and power (CHP) plants were selected for a case study. It was assumed that these plants will source forest residues from Swedish forest as their major fuel.

The dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS was applied to simulate current and future forest growth under changing climates. It was found that standing volume could increase approximately 30% in Northern and Central Sweden, which could be beneficial to the CHP plants there. But the outlook for Southern Sweden was less positive, with smaller increase of standing volume for pine trees and potentially up to 10% decrease of standing volume for spruce trees. This suggests that an alternative fuel may be desired for CHP plants in Southern Sweden. 

The potential negative impacts of removing forest residues were also discussed. It was suggested that comprehensive, thorough investigation be performed before moving ahead with sourcing forest residues to ensure the sustainability of such alternative is well-maintained.}},
  author       = {{Hui, Chi Yuen}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  series       = {{Student thesis series INES}},
  title        = {{Forest growth under future climate change in the context of bioenergy – case studies of combined heat and power plants in Sweden}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}