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Ripples of Conflict: How has the Ukraine-Russia conflict affected economic growth in third party countries?

Hamrén Berg, Anton LU (2024) NEKH02 20232
Department of Economics
Abstract
This study aims to research the effect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have had on third party countries' economic growth. Employing an econometric model with inspiration from previous research and Solow's growth model with augmentation to include human capital. The research spans the period from 1993 to 2022. The third party countries are categorized into four different groups based on economic development and geographic location, with a fifth group consisting of all countries in the study. While the conflict did not have a statistically significant impact on the average economic growth across all countries, distinct variations surfaced amongst the groups. Asian and Eurasian countries face the most substantial negative effects,... (More)
This study aims to research the effect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have had on third party countries' economic growth. Employing an econometric model with inspiration from previous research and Solow's growth model with augmentation to include human capital. The research spans the period from 1993 to 2022. The third party countries are categorized into four different groups based on economic development and geographic location, with a fifth group consisting of all countries in the study. While the conflict did not have a statistically significant impact on the average economic growth across all countries, distinct variations surfaced amongst the groups. Asian and Eurasian countries face the most substantial negative effects, while western European countries, with and without the US, experience a positive impact. Moreover, eastern European countries with low economic development endure larger negative effects from the conflict than eastern European countries with higher economic development and integration with the EU. These findings highlight varying effects and suggest that countries with lower economic development are more susceptible to negative spillover effects on economic growth. Further research is needed once the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is settled to fully understand the effects on economic growth in third party countries. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hamrén Berg, Anton LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20232
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
conflict, economic growth, economic development, third party countries
language
English
id
9147574
date added to LUP
2024-04-16 09:26:27
date last changed
2024-04-16 09:26:27
@misc{9147574,
  abstract     = {{This study aims to research the effect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have had on third party countries' economic growth. Employing an econometric model with inspiration from previous research and Solow's growth model with augmentation to include human capital. The research spans the period from 1993 to 2022. The third party countries are categorized into four different groups based on economic development and geographic location, with a fifth group consisting of all countries in the study. While the conflict did not have a statistically significant impact on the average economic growth across all countries, distinct variations surfaced amongst the groups. Asian and Eurasian countries face the most substantial negative effects, while western European countries, with and without the US, experience a positive impact. Moreover, eastern European countries with low economic development endure larger negative effects from the conflict than eastern European countries with higher economic development and integration with the EU. These findings highlight varying effects and suggest that countries with lower economic development are more susceptible to negative spillover effects on economic growth. Further research is needed once the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is settled to fully understand the effects on economic growth in third party countries.}},
  author       = {{Hamrén Berg, Anton}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Ripples of Conflict: How has the Ukraine-Russia conflict affected economic growth in third party countries?}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}