Skip to main content

LUP Student Papers

LUND UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES

The Short-Run Effects of Weather Anomalies on Consumer & Commodity Prices

Hauser, Lina Marie LU and Holmkvist, Fanny LU (2024) NEKN01 20241
Department of Economics
Abstract
This paper analyses the short-term effects of El Niño and La Niña weather shocks simultaneously, using the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and imposing assumptions on the econometric VAR model. We contribute to the climate macroeconomics literature by examining the impact of weather anomalies on commodity and food prices using monthly data. Our result for the world provides an overall indication and shows that agricultural and food commodity prices increase following a shock. For a country-by-country analysis, our result suggests that some of the 11 selected countries follow the same pattern as the world. For both the world and the countries, food consumer prices react with less than the found impact on commodity prices. Our... (More)
This paper analyses the short-term effects of El Niño and La Niña weather shocks simultaneously, using the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and imposing assumptions on the econometric VAR model. We contribute to the climate macroeconomics literature by examining the impact of weather anomalies on commodity and food prices using monthly data. Our result for the world provides an overall indication and shows that agricultural and food commodity prices increase following a shock. For a country-by-country analysis, our result suggests that some of the 11 selected countries follow the same pattern as the world. For both the world and the countries, food consumer prices react with less than the found impact on commodity prices. Our results suggest that El Niño and La Niña together do not have a major impact on price changes over the last 23 years. Moreover, the effect on industrial production is inconclusive, showing no clear relationship. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Hauser, Lina Marie LU and Holmkvist, Fanny LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20241
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Keywords: Weather shocks, structural VAR, commodities, consumer prices.
language
English
id
9156180
date added to LUP
2024-10-01 13:06:16
date last changed
2024-10-01 13:06:16
@misc{9156180,
  abstract     = {{This paper analyses the short-term effects of El Niño and La Niña weather shocks simultaneously, using the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and imposing assumptions on the econometric VAR model. We contribute to the climate macroeconomics literature by examining the impact of weather anomalies on commodity and food prices using monthly data. Our result for the world provides an overall indication and shows that agricultural and food commodity prices increase following a shock. For a country-by-country analysis, our result suggests that some of the 11 selected countries follow the same pattern as the world. For both the world and the countries, food consumer prices react with less than the found impact on commodity prices. Our results suggest that El Niño and La Niña together do not have a major impact on price changes over the last 23 years. Moreover, the effect on industrial production is inconclusive, showing no clear relationship.}},
  author       = {{Hauser, Lina Marie and Holmkvist, Fanny}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Short-Run Effects of Weather Anomalies on Consumer & Commodity Prices}},
  year         = {{2024}},
}