The Road to Infinite Clean Energy

Abstract

The transition to sustainable energy sources is a critical challenge facing Europe as it aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This master thesis explores the potential role of fusion energy in the future European energy market, focusing on Novatron Fusion Group's strategic positioning within this evolving landscape. The study uses a mixed methods approach, combining both qualitative interviews with quantitative analysis to determine how the fusion industry might develop until 2040. Through a stakeholder analysis the study identified 15 stakeholders within a possible fusion value chain. Among these stakeholders national efforts, private fusion producers, joint international efforts, suppliers of technology and fuel were deemed to be key stakeholders, essential for the success of fusion. Furthermore, the study identified 9 macro trends shaping the European energy market until 2040. Based on expert ratings of the trends, a scenario analysis was conducted, resulting in 4 scenarios with the two axis level of geopolitical instability and level of increased and improved energy storage solutions, showing a possible future of the European energy market. The scenarios showed several different opportunities for fusion to enter the European energy market and become part of the energy mix. The most favorable scenario for fusion energy was given when there is a high level of geopolitical instability and energy storage solutions have not reached significant breakthroughs, providing Novatron many different opportunities for their business. However, in other more unfavorable scenarios, Novatron may need to adapt both their customer base and their geographical presence to become competitive.

Popular Abstract

Exploring scenarios for the European energy market and the future of fusion energy


Have you ever wondered how stars can be so bright and powerful? The answer is fusion, the combination of light atoms to release energy. Harnessing this power is no easy task, especially when the plan is to enter an ever changing energy market. As uncertainties, such as geopolitical concerns and the efficiency of energy storage solutions, are affecting the energy market, fusion producers must secure key stakeholders in the fusion value chain and look for viable geographies for fusion energy.

Fusion energy, often called the “holy grail” of clean energy, involves merging light elements like hydrogen to release large amounts of energy. Achieving this requires extremely high temperatures, similar to the sun's core, which are difficult to replicate on Earth, leading to the saying that “fusion is always 30 years away.”

As Europe transitions to sustainable energy and phases out fossil fuels, the demand for electricity is rising due to increased electrification. Despite significant breakthroughs in fusion energy, more development is needed before it becomes commercially viable, with various actors involved in the progress.

One of these actors is Novatron Fusion Group, a Swedish private fusion developer looking to realize commercial fusion before 2040. Novatron's design uses symmetry to create a simpler, more stable confinement system, reducing costs and improving efficiency compared to other reactors.

The study identified 15 stakeholders in the fusion value chain. Key players today include private fusion developers, national and international efforts, and fuel and technology suppliers. In the future, academics and investors may also become crucial while suppliers of fuel lose their influence.
The study also identified 4 distinct scenarios for the European energy market in 2040 based on the two uncertain macro trends: increased geopolitical instability and increased and improved energy storage solutions.

Potential for fusion amid fission’s uncertainty: Characterized by high geopolitical instability and limited advancements in storage solutions, slowing down the advancements of renewables and fission energy and showing potential for fusion energy.
Nuclear leads the way: Low geopolitical instability and limited storage solutions, slowing down renewables and providing opportunity for fission and fusion.
Renewables lead in a stagnating Europe: High geopolitical instability may impair fission energy but renewables are effective due to effective storage solutions leaving some room for fusion.
Renewables take over Europe: Low geopolitical instability and advanced storage solutions, perfect for renewables and fission may be used as backup, leaving little room for fusion.

As we look towards 2040, there are many possibilities for the European energy market. This thesis provides a roadmap for Novatron and other private fusion producers on how to navigate this complex landscape. Recommendations range from securing good relations with key players in geopolitically unstable scenarios to finding geographical areas or alternative customers in scenarios where energy storage solutions are advanced.

• author: von Koch, Martin and Thornberg, Ludvig
• supervisor: Kajsa Ahlgren
• organization: Innovation Engineering
• alternative title: Vägen till obegränsad grön energi
• course: INTM01 20241
• year: 2024
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Fusion energy, Scenario analysis, Stakeholder analysis, European energy market, Value chain, Macro trends, Energy storage, Geopolitical instability
• language: English
• id: 9160201
• date added to LUP: 2024-06-19 11:15:14
• date last changed: 2024-06-19 11:15:14