An Analysis of the Swedish Intraday Market
(2024) In ISRN LUTFD2/TFEM—24/5212–SE + (1-58) FMIM01 20241Environmental and Energy Systems Studies
- Abstract (Swedish)
- To fully decarbonise the energy system, electrification is needed as one of the most important strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden and Europe. The deployment of renewable energy resources plays a central role in electrification and will continue to increase. In January 2024, Svenska Kraftnät
published a long-term market analysis with four future scenarios regarding the development of the energy system. The scenarios include two with higher electrification; Plannable Electrification (PE) and Renewable
Electrification (RE) and two with lower electrification; Small-scale Renewables (SR) and Mixed Roadmaps (MR). Due to changes in flexibility, the electricity market will be affected by electrification. It is further... (More) - To fully decarbonise the energy system, electrification is needed as one of the most important strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden and Europe. The deployment of renewable energy resources plays a central role in electrification and will continue to increase. In January 2024, Svenska Kraftnät
published a long-term market analysis with four future scenarios regarding the development of the energy system. The scenarios include two with higher electrification; Plannable Electrification (PE) and Renewable
Electrification (RE) and two with lower electrification; Small-scale Renewables (SR) and Mixed Roadmaps (MR). Due to changes in flexibility, the electricity market will be affected by electrification. It is further divided into four submarkets; the financial market, the day-ahead market, the intraday market and the balancing market. This study aims to analyse the development of the intraday market and to discuss its future trajectory along with the scenarios from Svenska Kraftnät. The study is limited to SE3 and includes the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. Since 1999, when the intraday market was introduced, trading has been ongoing on Nord Pool. The intraday market is a single cross-border European market where trades occur continuously during every hour of the day. The data analysis concluded that intraday prices showed a more volatile pattern during 2021 and 2022 and stabilised during 2023. The highest peaks of intraday prices and volatility are in 2022, a clear connection where identified with a power shutdown of the nuclear power plant Ringhals 4. The total volume of the trades has shown a stable pattern in 2021 and 2022, with around 50 GWh trades per month. At the end of 2023, the trading volume increased and reached up to 130 GWh. The increase in volume indicates an increased liquidity of the market. Day-ahead prices, renewable deployment, balance between demand and supply, grid connections and macroeconomic indicators are analysed in order to understand the deployment of the intraday market. Solar power production and intraday prices correlate to -8%. However, solar power accounts for a low share of the electricity mix. In the future with a larger share of solar production, it could be expected to have an increased influence on intraday prices. The wind production accounts for a larger share of the electricity production and is impacting the intraday prices to a greater extent. The correlation between the intraday prices and wind production shows seasonal differences. The highest correlations were reached -39% in December, followed by -32% in June 202. An increased wind production indicated an increased demand for flexibility in the supply. However, this can be adjusted by demand-side flexibility. Consequently, flexibility resources are expected to emerge on both the demand and supply sides in the future. Due to an integrated European market, the implementation of new grid connections between countries impacts electricity prices and the electricity market outcome in Sweden. The factors analysed impact the intraday market. However, it has been seen that other macroeconomic indicators have had a large impact on the intraday trading. The years 2021 and 2022 have shown a unique pattern in intraday trading due to the pandemic and the gas crises. To summarise, the factors studied within this report are all affecting the intraday prices. The prices have shown a volatile pattern during the three studied years, with notable peaks and valleys and it will probably show similar patterns within the future. With an increased amount of trades, the liquidity of the intraday market will most likely increase in the future. The range of electrification and the increase of RES will have an impact on the future intraday market. (Less) - Popular Abstract (Swedish)
- Elmarknadens framtid: Hur förnybar energi formar Sveriges intradagsmarknad
För att Sverige ska uppnå EU:s klimatmål, som ställer allt högre krav på minskade utsläpp av koldioxid, är elektrifiering av samhället en av de viktigaste strategierna. Omställningen ställer krav på att framtidens elsystem innehåller en ökad andel förnybar elproduktion i form av sol- och vindkraft. I takt med att den totala elproduktionen ökar kommer de förnybara energikällornas betydelse fortsätta växa. Detta påverkar även elmarknaden, där handel av el sker, som utvecklas och växer. Denna masteruppsats, författad av Klara Haglund och Alicia Lööf vid Lunds Tekniska Högskola, analyserar hur Sveriges intradagsmarknad för el, där handel sker kontinuerligt under... (More) - Elmarknadens framtid: Hur förnybar energi formar Sveriges intradagsmarknad
För att Sverige ska uppnå EU:s klimatmål, som ställer allt högre krav på minskade utsläpp av koldioxid, är elektrifiering av samhället en av de viktigaste strategierna. Omställningen ställer krav på att framtidens elsystem innehåller en ökad andel förnybar elproduktion i form av sol- och vindkraft. I takt med att den totala elproduktionen ökar kommer de förnybara energikällornas betydelse fortsätta växa. Detta påverkar även elmarknaden, där handel av el sker, som utvecklas och växer. Denna masteruppsats, författad av Klara Haglund och Alicia Lööf vid Lunds Tekniska Högskola, analyserar hur Sveriges intradagsmarknad för el, där handel sker kontinuerligt under dygnets alla timmar, har utvecklats och vilka faktorer som påverkar dess framtid.
Handeln som sker på intradagsmarknaden spelar en avgörande roll i att balansera elproduktion och elkonsumtion i realtid. Studien, som fokuserar på elprisområdet SE3 och insamlad handelsdata från 2021 till 2023, visar att intradagspriserna varit mer volatila under 2021 och 2022 och något stabilare under 2023. En observerad ökning av prisvolatiliteten 2022 kan kopplas till driftstörningar vid kärnkraftverket Ringhals 4. Handelsvolymerna ökade markant i slutet av 2023, vilket indikerar på en ökad marknadslikviditet. Vindkraftens produktion har visat sig ha större inverkan på intradagspriserna jämfört med solkraft, vilket beror på att vindkraft utgör en större del av Sveriges totala elproduktion. Sambandet mellan vindkraft och intradagspriser varierar säsongsmässigt, med skiftande månadsvisa korrelationer. Studien visar även på att dagen före-marknaden har en betydande påverkan på pris, volym och volatilitet för den el som handlas på intradagsmarknaden.
Svenska Kraftnät presenterar fyra framtidsscenarier för energisystemets utveckling, där två av dem; Planerbar Elektrifiering och Förnybar Elektrifiering, innebär en högre grad elektrifiering. Utöver dagen före-marknaden lyfts utbyggnad av förnybar energi, efterfrågeflexibilitet, internationella nätverksanslutningar och makroekonomiska indikatorer som de korralationsfaktorer med en inverkan på intradagsmarknaden och dess pris, volym och volatilitet. Ökat behov av flexibilitet från både utbuds- och konsumtionsidan förväntas bli allt viktigare för att hantera variationer i produktion och efterfrågan. Detta i sin tur ökar behovet av handel närmre leveranstimmen samt vikten av intradagmarknadens roll i elmarknadens framtida utformning. Ökad mängd handel förväntas ytterligare öka marknadens likviditet. Denna uppsats ger värdefulla insikter om hur intradagsmarknaden fungerar och vilka utmaningar och möjligheter som marknaden står inför i framtiden, särskilt med fokus på den pågående energiomställningen och en ökad elektrifiering.
Författare: Klara Haglund & Alicia Lööf, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, 2024. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9169608
- author
- Lööf, Alicia LU and Haglund, Klara
- supervisor
-
- Lars J Nilsson LU
- Hannes Sonnsjö LU
- organization
- course
- FMIM01 20241
- year
- 2024
- type
- H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
- subject
- keywords
- Intraday Market, Day-ahead Market, mFRR market, Wind Power, Solar Power, Price, Volatility, Liquidity
- publication/series
- ISRN LUTFD2/TFEM—24/5212–SE + (1-58)
- report number
- 5212
- ISSN
- 1102-3651
- language
- English
- id
- 9169608
- date added to LUP
- 2024-07-05 07:04:47
- date last changed
- 2024-07-05 07:04:47
@misc{9169608,
abstract = {{To fully decarbonise the energy system, electrification is needed as one of the most important strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in Sweden and Europe. The deployment of renewable energy resources plays a central role in electrification and will continue to increase. In January 2024, Svenska Kraftnät
published a long-term market analysis with four future scenarios regarding the development of the energy system. The scenarios include two with higher electrification; Plannable Electrification (PE) and Renewable
Electrification (RE) and two with lower electrification; Small-scale Renewables (SR) and Mixed Roadmaps (MR). Due to changes in flexibility, the electricity market will be affected by electrification. It is further divided into four submarkets; the financial market, the day-ahead market, the intraday market and the balancing market. This study aims to analyse the development of the intraday market and to discuss its future trajectory along with the scenarios from Svenska Kraftnät. The study is limited to SE3 and includes the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. Since 1999, when the intraday market was introduced, trading has been ongoing on Nord Pool. The intraday market is a single cross-border European market where trades occur continuously during every hour of the day. The data analysis concluded that intraday prices showed a more volatile pattern during 2021 and 2022 and stabilised during 2023. The highest peaks of intraday prices and volatility are in 2022, a clear connection where identified with a power shutdown of the nuclear power plant Ringhals 4. The total volume of the trades has shown a stable pattern in 2021 and 2022, with around 50 GWh trades per month. At the end of 2023, the trading volume increased and reached up to 130 GWh. The increase in volume indicates an increased liquidity of the market. Day-ahead prices, renewable deployment, balance between demand and supply, grid connections and macroeconomic indicators are analysed in order to understand the deployment of the intraday market. Solar power production and intraday prices correlate to -8%. However, solar power accounts for a low share of the electricity mix. In the future with a larger share of solar production, it could be expected to have an increased influence on intraday prices. The wind production accounts for a larger share of the electricity production and is impacting the intraday prices to a greater extent. The correlation between the intraday prices and wind production shows seasonal differences. The highest correlations were reached -39% in December, followed by -32% in June 202. An increased wind production indicated an increased demand for flexibility in the supply. However, this can be adjusted by demand-side flexibility. Consequently, flexibility resources are expected to emerge on both the demand and supply sides in the future. Due to an integrated European market, the implementation of new grid connections between countries impacts electricity prices and the electricity market outcome in Sweden. The factors analysed impact the intraday market. However, it has been seen that other macroeconomic indicators have had a large impact on the intraday trading. The years 2021 and 2022 have shown a unique pattern in intraday trading due to the pandemic and the gas crises. To summarise, the factors studied within this report are all affecting the intraday prices. The prices have shown a volatile pattern during the three studied years, with notable peaks and valleys and it will probably show similar patterns within the future. With an increased amount of trades, the liquidity of the intraday market will most likely increase in the future. The range of electrification and the increase of RES will have an impact on the future intraday market.}},
author = {{Lööf, Alicia and Haglund, Klara}},
issn = {{1102-3651}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{ISRN LUTFD2/TFEM—24/5212–SE + (1-58)}},
title = {{An Analysis of the Swedish Intraday Market}},
year = {{2024}},
}