From ashes to analysis: Investigating conflict and vegetation fires in Iraq

Abstract

A quarter of the Earth’s vegetated surfaces have seen an extension in the fire weather season since 1979, with areas in the Middle East still seeing an increase in burned areas although the global average burned area is decreasing. As fires emit 1.6-2.8 Pg carbon annually, the link between fires and climate has been vigorously studied in western and tropical areas, leaving a research gap for arid and semi-arid areas smitten by conflict.
This study investigates the relationship between vegetation fires, climate, and conflict in Iraq over 22 years (2000-2022), aiming help fill this research gap. By producing a national fire season map and analysing spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation fires and conflict events, this study examines where and when fires occurred, identifies fire hotspots, and explores correlations with climatic and conflict factors. A combination of satellite-based Burned Area and Active Fire MODIS products and the media-based Uppsala Conflict Data Program dataset was used to investigate these spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation fires. Hot spot analysis was conducted for both Active Fires and Conflict Events, as well as a spearman rank correlation, while Burned Area was used to generate fire frequency. Correlations and one-factor ANOVA were also conducted to investigate the relationship between Burned Areas, Conflict Events, Active Fires, and the mean Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index for all events.
Findings indicate spatial variation for the density and intensity of Active Fires, with regions associated with higher moisture content indicating a higher intensity and total number of Active Fires. Cropland-dominated governorates were found to show distinct seasonal fire patterns, whereas regions dominated by bare land exhibited no clear seasonality. Conflict Events occurred to a greater extent during seasons with low mean moisture and in ecoregions classified as deserts or semi-deserts. Although national-level correlations between conflict and fire were low, regional similarities (close to ¼ of all cells) in clusters for Active Fires and Conflict Events suggest conflict influences fire occurrence on a local scale rather than nationally. Furthermore, 2019 saw significant peaks in Active Fires, with a majority occurring in croplands, where close to half of the Conflict Events for 2019 also occurred. Trends for AF and BA were also found to increase during the study period for all but one (Baghdad) governorate in Iraq, and during eight out of the 12 months of the year.
The study concludes that conflict may influence vegetation fires on a local scale rather than a larger scale. Furthermore, mean Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index indicated stronger correlations with vegetation fires when longer periods showed wetter conditions, showing that moisture impacts the total number of Active Fires more significantly on an (eco-)regional scale than nationally.

Popular Abstract

Climate and weather extremes have been observed to occur more frequently and with a higher intensity on a global scale. A quarter of the Earth’s vegetated surface has seen an increase in the fire weather season, amounting in 3% of the Earth’s surface burning annually and 1.6-2.8 Pg of carbon being emitted every year. Today, 90% of fires globally are ignited by human actions, and areas burned are increasing for certain regions, such as the Middle East. Although vegetation fires are vital processes of the Earth’s system, they can cause harm to both human health and ecosystems.

The link between climate and fires have been studied vigorously in western, developed and European regions, but not so much in arid regions experiencing conflict. As the Middle East is projected to see more frequent heatwaves, already experience natural disasters due to climate change, and has seen reoccurring conflicts for the past decades, it may benefit from studies connecting climate, vegetation fires and conflict. This study aims to investigate when and where vegetation fires occurred in Iraq during 2011-2022, as well as investigating how climate factors and conflict events may have affected these fires. This was done by looking at areas and periods experiencing a higher-than-normal number of fires and conflicts, as well as the weather during those events.

Maps for fire seasonality and peak fire month (months and administrative regions experiencing 10% or more of all fires) were produced, along with maps showing areas with higher numbers of fires and conflict over the entire study period (frequency). Statistical tests indicated that wetter conditions over longer periods of time and regions associated with more vegetation showed higher numbers of fires, while conflicts more commonly occurred in drier regions. It was also indicated that conflict may not necessarily affect the number and pattern of fires on a national scale, as climate does, but rather on a local scale.

• author: Rosenquist Ohlsson, Lovisa
• supervisor: Lina Eklund
• organization: Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
• course: NGEM01 20241
• year: 2024
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Earth and Environmental Sciences
• keywords: Fire season, Conflict, Vegetation fire, Iraq, Burned area, Active fires, Pyrogeography
• publication/series: Student thesis series INES
• report number: 671
• language: English
• id: 9170803
• date added to LUP: 2024-08-12 14:12:56
• date last changed: 2024-08-12 14:12:56