Fire Regimes in the Middle East: Scoping the State of Knowledge about Influences on Wildfire Occurrences

Abstract

Recent years have seen an increase in reports on rising wildfire occurrences in countries of the Middle East. Wildfires are integral parts of terrestrial ecosystems and as such prone to the recent, large-scale anthropogenic changes of global ecosystem dynamics. However, the systematic analysis of patterns of wildfire occurrences – fire regimes – is concentrated on a few well studied regions and
research on the Middle East is scarce. This project therefore aims to capture the state of knowledge in this area and report the key findings from the literature. The research is grounded in a scoping review of literature that encompasses a quantitative analysis of fire regime characteristics and a qualitative synthesis of the drivers of wildfire occurrence in the Middle East. The study reveals a concentration of research on a few countries of the region and underscores the claim of a knowledge gap on wildfires in arid biomes. Despite high inter-regional variability, findings suggest an overall increase in fire frequency and burned area throughout the region. Anthropogenic influence seems to be the key driver of fire ignitions, with clear links to armed conflicts in the region. The impact of climate change on fire regime dynamics is often referred to on a broad level but contested
by some studies and lacks detailed assessments. In conclusion, there is an urgent need to better understand the interplay between wildfire occurrences and the regional social, ecological, and climatological dynamics to better guide future research as well as management practices.

Popular Abstract

Fires in the Middle East: Burning Questions Remain
More and more wildfires are reported to occur in many countries of the Middle East.
These fires, however, are not simply “natural” disasters, but rather the outcomes of a dynamic interplay between geographical, climatic, and human factors. These complex
systems are not well understood, and many gaps persist in the scientific literature on this topic.
News reports on devastating wildfires seem to indicate they are becoming more
frequent, especially in warm regions such as the Middle East, where notably Turkey and Syria have seen massive wildfires in the recent past. Commonly attributed to climate change and warming global temperatures, the rise in wildfire occurrence in the Middle East is far more complicated than that. The main goal of our research was to understand the complex reasons for rising wildfire occurrences – knowledge that is essential for improving wildfire management to save lives and protect the environment.
To uncover the existing knowledge in this field of research we undertook a scoping
review, a type of literature review creating a comprehensive picture of available
publications in a short timeframe. With a novel approach to this framework, we
contribute to the methodological advancement of scoping reviews. Our main goal was
however to identify existing knowledge, and from this determine gaps in this scientific domain to inform further research efforts.
One of our key findings was that regions experiencing frequent conflicts tend to have altered fire regimes, with fires becoming more frequent and intense because traditional land management practices are disrupted, and military activities directly cause wildfire ignitions. As a region that recurringly experiences unrest and armed conflict, wildfires in the Middle East are thus often driven by anthropogenic pressures on the environment.
Surprisingly, the connection between climate change and wildfires is less linear and direct than one might think. It is a common belief, also reflected in the majority of the literature that we reviewed, that climate change directly leads to a rise in wildfires through warmer temperatures and less precipitation favoring fire conditions. However, we identified several publications that question this narrative and indicate a more complex relationship: While currently there might be an increase in wildfires due to favorable climatic conditions, these conditions limit plant growth and therefore, in the long-term, might lead to a reduction of wildfires due to less fuel being available to burn. The long-term projection of climate change impacts on wildfire occurrences is thus unclear and remains an open question in the scientific discourse.
Perhaps most importantly, we identified a significant gap in scientific research, as
nearly all publications on wildfires in the region concern Turkey, Iran, and Israel, while other Middle Eastern countries remain largely understudied. This represents a crucial finding to guide future research in this domain, which would benefit from filling this gap. It is indeed important that research reflect the rich diversity of environmental and social landscapes that impact wildfire activity in the Middle East to paint an accurate picture of fire regimes in this world region and to understand how to best manage them.

• author: Ignatieff, Sarah-Gabrielle and von der Kammer, Rupert
• supervisor: Peter Månsson
• organization: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• course: VBRM15 20241
• year: 2024
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Earth and Environmental Sciences
• keywords: Fire Regime, Middle East, Conflict, Climate Change, Review
• language: English
• id: 9176050
• date added to LUP: 2024-10-04 14:06:24
• date last changed: 2024-10-04 14:06:24