An integrated approach to forest fire risk mapping in the Mediterranean Region - Evros, Greece
(2025) In Student thesis series INES NGEM01 20241Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- Abstract
- This study presents a geographic information system–based multiple criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for mapping forest fire risk zones in the Mediterranean region of Evros, Greece, which is close to Alexandroupoli city and two national parks extremely rich in biodiversity, National Park Dadias - Soufliou - Lefkimmis and Evros Delta. A pairwise comparison was made to ascertain the importance of preference between the four main criteria ― topography, forest structure, socioeconomic and climate data ― along with sub-criteria such as aspect, slope, DEM, land cover, distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from population, Natura 2000 areas, wind, temperature, precipitation. The final... (More)
- This study presents a geographic information system–based multiple criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for mapping forest fire risk zones in the Mediterranean region of Evros, Greece, which is close to Alexandroupoli city and two national parks extremely rich in biodiversity, National Park Dadias - Soufliou - Lefkimmis and Evros Delta. A pairwise comparison was made to ascertain the importance of preference between the four main criteria ― topography, forest structure, socioeconomic and climate data ― along with sub-criteria such as aspect, slope, DEM, land cover, distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from population, Natura 2000 areas, wind, temperature, precipitation. The final output delineated fire risk zones in the study area into five categories: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk, and very low risk zones. To evaluate the results, 30% of the historical forest fire ignition points from MODIS were used for the last 23 years. The AHP model revealed that topography is the most influential factor in forest fire occurrence, followed by forest structure. The findings show a significant cluster of extremely high-risk areas in National Park Dadias - Soufliou - Lefkimmis and Evros Delta, while the overall fire risk map was classified as poor due to the lack of data. The wildfires of August 2023 confirmed that the area was at high risk, with an accuracy of 0.679 for the AHP model. The resulting AHP model is versatile and can be applied to other typical Mediterranean landscapes. (Less)
- Popular Abstract
- Wildfires are a growing concern in Greece, and understanding what drives fire risk is crucial for protecting people and the environment. This study focused on the Evros region, creating a detailed fire risk map by analyzing factors like terrain, climate, vegetation, and human activity. Using a structured method called the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), researchers ranked these factors to see which ones matter most. Steep slopes, dry conditions, and areas with higher population density turned out to be the biggest contributors to fire risk. While the study provided valuable insights, it faced challenges, such as limited access to detailed data and the potential for human bias in evaluating the importance of each factor. Despite these... (More)
- Wildfires are a growing concern in Greece, and understanding what drives fire risk is crucial for protecting people and the environment. This study focused on the Evros region, creating a detailed fire risk map by analyzing factors like terrain, climate, vegetation, and human activity. Using a structured method called the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), researchers ranked these factors to see which ones matter most. Steep slopes, dry conditions, and areas with higher population density turned out to be the biggest contributors to fire risk. While the study provided valuable insights, it faced challenges, such as limited access to detailed data and the potential for human bias in evaluating the importance of each factor. Despite these hurdles, the research highlights the importance of combining science, technology, and community efforts to better predict and prevent wildfires, paving the way for safer and more effective strategies in the future. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9182715
- author
- Riga, Maria LU
- supervisor
-
- Hongxiao Jin LU
- Lanhui Wang LU
- organization
- course
- NGEM01 20241
- year
- 2025
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Fires, Wild fires, Greece, AHP
- publication/series
- Student thesis series INES
- report number
- 686
- language
- English
- id
- 9182715
- date added to LUP
- 2025-01-24 12:08:23
- date last changed
- 2025-01-24 12:08:23
@misc{9182715,
abstract = {{This study presents a geographic information system–based multiple criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for mapping forest fire risk zones in the Mediterranean region of Evros, Greece, which is close to Alexandroupoli city and two national parks extremely rich in biodiversity, National Park Dadias - Soufliou - Lefkimmis and Evros Delta. A pairwise comparison was made to ascertain the importance of preference between the four main criteria ― topography, forest structure, socioeconomic and climate data ― along with sub-criteria such as aspect, slope, DEM, land cover, distance from roads, distance from rivers, distance from population, Natura 2000 areas, wind, temperature, precipitation. The final output delineated fire risk zones in the study area into five categories: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk, and very low risk zones. To evaluate the results, 30% of the historical forest fire ignition points from MODIS were used for the last 23 years. The AHP model revealed that topography is the most influential factor in forest fire occurrence, followed by forest structure. The findings show a significant cluster of extremely high-risk areas in National Park Dadias - Soufliou - Lefkimmis and Evros Delta, while the overall fire risk map was classified as poor due to the lack of data. The wildfires of August 2023 confirmed that the area was at high risk, with an accuracy of 0.679 for the AHP model. The resulting AHP model is versatile and can be applied to other typical Mediterranean landscapes.}},
author = {{Riga, Maria}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
series = {{Student thesis series INES}},
title = {{An integrated approach to forest fire risk mapping in the Mediterranean Region - Evros, Greece}},
year = {{2025}},
}