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From Mines to Mayhem: The Dynamics Between Commodity Prices and Conflict in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Danielsson, Jakob LU (2025) NEKH02 20242
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm... (More)
This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm the role of rapacity and opportunity costs in violence related to natural resources. However, the effect of fluctuations in coffee prices deviates from theoretical expectations, suggesting a rather unique dynamic where higher levels of agricultural income may be fueling conflicts. Based on the obtained results, policy recommendations are difficult to determine. Future research should examine market dynamics, illicit trade and socio-economic conditions underlying the violent state in which the country finds itself in. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Danielsson, Jakob LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20242
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Conflicts, Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.C), commodity price shocks, rapacity effect, natural resources.
language
English
id
9183827
date added to LUP
2025-05-16 10:46:22
date last changed
2025-05-16 10:46:22
@misc{9183827,
  abstract     = {{This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm the role of rapacity and opportunity costs in violence related to natural resources. However, the effect of fluctuations in coffee prices deviates from theoretical expectations, suggesting a rather unique dynamic where higher levels of agricultural income may be fueling conflicts. Based on the obtained results, policy recommendations are difficult to determine. Future research should examine market dynamics, illicit trade and socio-economic conditions underlying the violent state in which the country finds itself in.}},
  author       = {{Danielsson, Jakob}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{From Mines to Mayhem: The Dynamics Between Commodity Prices and Conflict in Democratic Republic of the Congo}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}