From Mines to Mayhem: The Dynamics Between Commodity Prices and Conflict in Democratic Republic of the Congo
(2025) NEKH02 20242Department of Economics
- Abstract
- This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm... (More)
- This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm the role of rapacity and opportunity costs in violence related to natural resources. However, the effect of fluctuations in coffee prices deviates from theoretical expectations, suggesting a rather unique dynamic where higher levels of agricultural income may be fueling conflicts. Based on the obtained results, policy recommendations are difficult to determine. Future research should examine market dynamics, illicit trade and socio-economic conditions underlying the violent state in which the country finds itself in. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9183827
- author
- Danielsson, Jakob LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NEKH02 20242
- year
- 2025
- type
- M2 - Bachelor Degree
- subject
- keywords
- Conflicts, Democratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.C), commodity price shocks, rapacity effect, natural resources.
- language
- English
- id
- 9183827
- date added to LUP
- 2025-05-16 10:46:22
- date last changed
- 2025-05-16 10:46:22
@misc{9183827, abstract = {{This thesis explores the causal relationship between exogeneous price shocks on commodities and the level and intensification of violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the year 1989 to 2023. To empirically test this relationship, fixed effects regression models has been used to analyze the effects of these shocks across the 26 provinces that makes up the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The models have been tested on panel data on reported conflicts and global prices of gold, copper, cobalt and Robusta coffee beans. Results indicate significant positive relationships between levels of conflicts and increasing commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee. Consistent with previous research, the results affirm the role of rapacity and opportunity costs in violence related to natural resources. However, the effect of fluctuations in coffee prices deviates from theoretical expectations, suggesting a rather unique dynamic where higher levels of agricultural income may be fueling conflicts. Based on the obtained results, policy recommendations are difficult to determine. Future research should examine market dynamics, illicit trade and socio-economic conditions underlying the violent state in which the country finds itself in.}}, author = {{Danielsson, Jakob}}, language = {{eng}}, note = {{Student Paper}}, title = {{From Mines to Mayhem: The Dynamics Between Commodity Prices and Conflict in Democratic Republic of the Congo}}, year = {{2025}}, }