Climate Impacts of Grid-integrated Photovoltaic Systems in Sweden under Future Energy Scenarios

Abstract

Sweden aims to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2045. Grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems are emerging as a practical solution to attempt to minimise climate impact within the building sector in a cost-effective manner. This study theoretically investigates the climate impacts of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems within Sweden’s low-carbon intensity electricity grid.
The environmental feasibility of PV systems was evaluated based on Global Warming Potential (GWP) through future emission factors (EF) scenarios of the Swedish energy system. The methodology integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) across multiple frameworks, including the Swedish Climate Declaration, NOLLCO₂, and Miljöbyggnad 4.0, to compare PV modules from different manufacturers, with a case study providing real data on electricity use.
Results reveal that the environmental benefits of PV systems vary by module environmental impacts and grid export configurations. In LCA methodologies where PVs are assessed as technical installations of the building, selecting a PV module with the lowest climate impact is important. Optimising the system is also key to significantly reducing carbon emissions from the building’s energy use. Methodologies that evaluate PV systems from a utility perspective, where the embodied carbon is attributed to energy production, show lower impacts across the entire life-cycle and greater resilience to changes in future emissions scenarios.
The PV module with lower climate impacts displays the most favourable environmental performance under current regulatory frameworks. The study also highlighted the significance of metering configurations in maximising climate benefits through grid exports. In conclusion, PV systems can only be an effective climate mitigation strategy under specific methodologies that account for climate compensation measures.

Popular Abstract

Can PV Panels help reduce Carbon Emissions in Sweden’s buildings?

Sweden aims to become climate-neutral by 2050, making it essential to reduce carbon emissions in key sectors, including the building industry. Due to rising electricity prices, grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems have gained popularity, offering a potential climate-friendly and cost-effective solution. However, given Sweden’s low-carbon intensity electricity grid, questions remain regarding their actual environmental benefits.
This study theoretically investigates the climate impacts of grid-connected PV systems in Sweden by evaluating their environmental feasibility through Global Warming Potential (GWP) under different future emission factor (EF) scenarios. The methodology applies Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) across multiple frameworks, including the Swedish Climate Declaration, Miljöbyggnad 4.0 and NOLLCO₂, to compare PV modules from different manufacturers. A case study using real electricity data further contextualises the findings.

Results show that the environmental benefits of PV systems depend on the climate impact of PV modules during manufacturing and grid export configurations. In LCA methodologies where PVs are assessed as technical installations of a building, such as the Climate Declaration and Miljöbyggnad, selecting PV modules with lower carbon emissions is essential. Additionally, optimising system design plays a key role in minimising carbon emissions from the building’s energy use.

On the contrary, methodologies that assess PV systems from a utility perspective, where embodied carbon is attributed to energy production, as in NOLLCO₂, show lower climate impacts across the entire life cycle and greater resilience to changes in future emissions scenarios. Under current regulatory frameworks, PV modules with lower climate impacts demonstrate the most favourable environmental performance. The study also highlights the significance of metering configurations in maximising climate benefits through grid exports.

As Sweden’s electricity grid continues to decarbonise, the long-term effectiveness of PV systems in reducing emissions may decline. This raises critical questions about how energy policies and building regulations should account for local renewable energy production in the future.

For the building owners and other stakeholders, understanding the real climate impact of PV modules is essential. This research underscores the importance of choosing the right PV modules and considering the system optimisation and measurement plans to maximise environmental benefits.

Lastly, PV systems can be an effective climate mitigation strategy, but only under specific methodologies that account for climate compensation measures of the electricity sold to the grid.

• author: Maçarico Ferreira, Rita da Conceição
• supervisor: Ricardo Bernardo; Helena Bülow-Hübe
• organization: Division of Energy and Building Design
• course: AEBM01 20241
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Photovoltaic system, LCA methodology, Swedish Electricity Grid, Emission Factors, Climate Declaration.
• language: English
• id: 9185733
• date added to LUP: 2025-02-26 15:32:25
• date last changed: 2025-02-26 15:32:25