Pathways to Low Emission Energy Systems in the Baja California Peninsula - A Study of Implementation of Renewable Energy in Isolated Systems

Abstract

As the global energy sector undergoes a necessary transition toward renewable sources, Mexico has committed to significantly expanding its clean energy capacity. The Baja California Peninsula, with its rich solar and wind resources, presents a unique opportunity to lead this shift. The peninsula is composed of two states: Baja California and Baja California Sur. Baja California operates one electrical system, while Baja California Sur has two distinct systems. These regions are isolated from the national grid, with the exception of Baja California’s northern part, which is connected to the United States at two points in the north. However, the geographical isolation of the region from the national grid introduces both technical and economic challenges that must be addressed to enable a more efficient and integrated energy system.

This study explores potential energy transition pathways for the Baja California peninsula by modeling various scenarios. The analysis evaluates the feasibility and impact of integrating renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind power, alongside energy storage solutions to ensure grid stability and meet future energy demands.

The results highlight that solar power, combined with energy storage, overall offers the most cost-effective pathway to meet the peninsula's growing energy demand, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, the findings also reveal key challenges that must be addressed to achieve a successful transition, including infrastructure bottlenecks, high initial capital costs, and the need for extensive policy support. Expanding and modernizing the transmisson network is a critical factor in enabling renewable energy integration, as the most resource-rich regions for renewable energy are often located far from the existing grid.

The potential for overproducing electricity for storage and export appears promising in terms of reducing emissions and ensuring long-term cost-effectiveness. However, its feasibility is heavily reliant on the creation of favorable policy environments, which include clear incentives for renewable energy development and a stable regulatory framework for energy trade. This study highlights the critical need for strong policy leadership and substantial investments in both infrastructure and technology to enable a successful transition to a sustainable energy system.

In conclusion, while technical solutions for decarbonizing electricity production in the BC peninsula exist, achieving net-zero emissions will require coordinated efforts across multiple sectors. The success of this transition depends not only on technological advancements but also on political will, societal engagement, and international cooperation. Future research should explore the effectiveness of policy incentives, regulatory frameworks, and market mechanisms in accelerating renewable energy adoption, as well as the potential for cross-border energy trade or connecting the systems with each other or the national grid.

Popular Abstract

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges we face today. It’s impacting everything from weather patterns to ecosystems, and no one is immune. As the effects of global warming become more apparent, it’s clear that we need to make big changes in how we produce and use energy.

In 2023, the power industry was responsible for over 38% of global emissions, more than any other sector. With the world’s energy demand rising, switching to clean, renewable energy is key to reducing these harmful emissions. To meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement and keep global temperatures from rising too much, the world needs to triple its use of renewable energy by 2030.

Mexico is stepping up to the challenge. At the 2022 COP27 climate summit, Mexico committed to doubling its renewable energy capacity by 2023. This goal reflects the country’s potential for change, especially in regions like Baja California.
The Baja California Peninsula, a region rich in renewable resources like solar and wind power, yet still heavily dependent on fossil fuels. The growing demand for energy, particularly driven by tourism in Baja California Sur, presents a unique challenge. The existing infrastructure, including an outdated power grid, struggles to keep up with the growing need for electricity and the shift towards cleaner sources.
What makes this issue even more pressing is that the best places for solar and wind energy are often far from the existing power grid and the current grid can’t handle the needed capacity expansions. Expanding this infrastructure is costly and complex, but essential if the region is to tap into its renewable energy potential.
Through energy modeling, we have found that the Baja California peninsula has a massive opportunity to lead the way in clean energy production, provided that the right investments are made in grid development, energy storage, and energy efficiency. This could help the region meet its rising electricity demand without further contributing to climate change. Additionally, current energy policies are geared more toward facilitating energy exports to the U.S. rather than promoting local renewable energy investments., a gap that needs to be addressed if the region is to fully realize its renewable energy potential.
The need to move toward renewable energy is not just a matter of technological advancement, it’s about creating sustainable systems that will benefit both the environment and local economies. This transition could also lead to new jobs and economic opportunities, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
What’s especially surprising is the significant potential for energy savings, for example through improvements in water infrastructure, particularly in cities like Tijuana, where water pumping uses a large amount of electricity. If the region improves the efficiency of several systems, it could save considerable energy while still meeting the region's needs.
Ultimately, this work could provide valuable insights for policymakers and businesses looking to accelerate the adoption of renewable energy in Baja California, helping the region become a model for sustainable energy development that could inspire other regions worldwide.

• author: Gustavsson, Jessica and Morgensterns Jansson, Meja
• supervisor: Martin Andersson; Kristian Voss Olesen
• organization: Department of Energy Sciences
• course: MVKM01 20242
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: Mexico, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Energy Systems, Renewable Energy, Energy Modeling, Decarbonization, Energy Transition, Energy Storage, Energy Policy
• report number: ISRN LUTMDN/TMHP-25/5613-SE
• ISSN: 0282-1990
• language: English
• id: 9185956
• date added to LUP: 2025-03-04 07:59:01
• date last changed: 2025-03-04 07:59:01