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En metod för att beräkna tillståndet för planetära gränser och bedöma deras orsaker - Med hjälp av den systemdynamiska modellen FRIDA

Eriksson, Axel LU (2025) FMIM01 20251
Environmental and Energy Systems Studies
Abstract
The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework defines a "safe operating space" based on nine key Earth system processes. Out of these, four are terrestrial, and their primary driver of transgression is agriculture. To better understand how agricultural activities might further influence the terrestrial PBs, it is essential to model their drivers and interactions over time. A helpful tool for studying complex dynamic relationships like these are World-Earth models, in particular FRIDA, because it aims to provide an internally consistent representation of many societal and Earth system processes. In this thesis, a PBs module is developed within FRIDA, representing the climate change PB and the four terrestrial PBs: biosphere integrity, land... (More)
The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework defines a "safe operating space" based on nine key Earth system processes. Out of these, four are terrestrial, and their primary driver of transgression is agriculture. To better understand how agricultural activities might further influence the terrestrial PBs, it is essential to model their drivers and interactions over time. A helpful tool for studying complex dynamic relationships like these are World-Earth models, in particular FRIDA, because it aims to provide an internally consistent representation of many societal and Earth system processes. In this thesis, a PBs module is developed within FRIDA, representing the climate change PB and the four terrestrial PBs: biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater use and biogeochemical flows. In total, seven different PB control variables are implemented across the five PBs studied, using both directly related variables in FRIDA and proxies related to the calculations using assumed relationships based on literature. By running the FRIDA model in a scenario governed by endogenous model behaviour (i.e. with nearly no external forcing of the model), the PB quantifications are validated against values documented in the literature. Since FRIDA is still under active development, this thesis should be seen as a first effort to integrate PB status quantification and analysis into such a model.

The results show overarching agreement with independent, earlier estimates of PB control variable time series on whether the control variables are in the safe operating space, the zone of increasing risk or the high-risk zone at a given point of time. However, some notable differences still occur, which may be attributed to the proxies developed to account for some relevant processes not currently represented in FRIDA. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the general suitability of the FRIDA model for simulating PB trajectories and its potential to represent and analyse their drivers and interactions. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Eriksson, Axel LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Assessing Planetary Boundary Transgressions and Their Causes - Using the FRIDA system dynamics model
course
FMIM01 20251
year
type
H3 - Professional qualifications (4 Years - )
subject
keywords
planetary boundaries, integrated assessment modelling, system dynamics, Earth system science
report number
LUTFD2/TFEM—25/5223–SE + (1-42)
ISSN
1102-3651
language
English
id
9186505
date added to LUP
2025-03-17 09:41:24
date last changed
2025-03-17 09:41:24
@misc{9186505,
  abstract     = {{The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework defines a "safe operating space" based on nine key Earth system processes. Out of these, four are terrestrial, and their primary driver of transgression is agriculture. To better understand how agricultural activities might further influence the terrestrial PBs, it is essential to model their drivers and interactions over time. A helpful tool for studying complex dynamic relationships like these are World-Earth models, in particular FRIDA, because it aims to provide an internally consistent representation of many societal and Earth system processes. In this thesis, a PBs module is developed within FRIDA, representing the climate change PB and the four terrestrial PBs: biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater use and biogeochemical flows. In total, seven different PB control variables are implemented across the five PBs studied, using both directly related variables in FRIDA and proxies related to the calculations using assumed relationships based on literature. By running the FRIDA model in a scenario governed by endogenous model behaviour (i.e. with nearly no external forcing of the model), the PB quantifications are validated against values documented in the literature. Since FRIDA is still under active development, this thesis should be seen as a first effort to integrate PB status quantification and analysis into such a model.

The results show overarching agreement with independent, earlier estimates of PB control variable time series on whether the control variables are in the safe operating space, the zone of increasing risk or the high-risk zone at a given point of time. However, some notable differences still occur, which may be attributed to the proxies developed to account for some relevant processes not currently represented in FRIDA. Overall, this thesis demonstrates the general suitability of the FRIDA model for simulating PB trajectories and its potential to represent and analyse their drivers and interactions.}},
  author       = {{Eriksson, Axel}},
  issn         = {{1102-3651}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{En metod för att beräkna tillståndet för planetära gränser och bedöma deras orsaker - Med hjälp av den systemdynamiska modellen FRIDA}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}