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Klar för krasch

Carp, William LU (2025) STVK05 20251
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This study investigates why the Minsk Agreements, negotiated to resolve the war
in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, ultimately failed. Drawing on James Sebenius’
negotiation analysis framework, the study develops a five-step causal mechanism
that explains the agreements’ collapse through incompatible interests, strategic
evaluations of their best alternative to negotiated agreement (BATNA), an
insufficient zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), escalated value-claiming and a
resulting negotiation deadlock. The methodological approach is qualitative,
employing outcome-explaining process-tracing in a single-case study design. The
analysis finds that both Russia and Ukraine held fundamentally conflicting interests
and evaluated... (More)
This study investigates why the Minsk Agreements, negotiated to resolve the war
in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, ultimately failed. Drawing on James Sebenius’
negotiation analysis framework, the study develops a five-step causal mechanism
that explains the agreements’ collapse through incompatible interests, strategic
evaluations of their best alternative to negotiated agreement (BATNA), an
insufficient zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), escalated value-claiming and a
resulting negotiation deadlock. The methodological approach is qualitative,
employing outcome-explaining process-tracing in a single-case study design. The
analysis finds that both Russia and Ukraine held fundamentally conflicting interests
and evaluated their respective BATNAs to the Minsk Agreements more favorably
than the commitments outlines in the agreement. This led to a structural lack of
common ground, intensified bargaining positions and ultimately, an enduring
stalemate. The Minsk Agreements are shown to have failed both in terms of
reducing violence and securing an actual implementation. The study concludes by
offering practical recommendations for the design of a future peace agreement,
including robust enforcement mechanisms, grammatical clarity, reciprocal
legitimacy and controlled flexibility of withstanding shifting political realities. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Carp, William LU
supervisor
organization
course
STVK05 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Ukraina, Ryssland, Minskavtalen, Fredsavtal, Förhandlingsanalys
language
Swedish
id
9188771
date added to LUP
2025-08-08 10:37:34
date last changed
2025-08-08 10:37:34
@misc{9188771,
  abstract     = {{This study investigates why the Minsk Agreements, negotiated to resolve the war 
in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, ultimately failed. Drawing on James Sebenius’ 
negotiation analysis framework, the study develops a five-step causal mechanism 
that explains the agreements’ collapse through incompatible interests, strategic 
evaluations of their best alternative to negotiated agreement (BATNA), an 
insufficient zone of possible agreement (ZOPA), escalated value-claiming and a 
resulting negotiation deadlock. The methodological approach is qualitative, 
employing outcome-explaining process-tracing in a single-case study design. The 
analysis finds that both Russia and Ukraine held fundamentally conflicting interests 
and evaluated their respective BATNAs to the Minsk Agreements more favorably 
than the commitments outlines in the agreement. This led to a structural lack of 
common ground, intensified bargaining positions and ultimately, an enduring 
stalemate. The Minsk Agreements are shown to have failed both in terms of 
reducing violence and securing an actual implementation. The study concludes by 
offering practical recommendations for the design of a future peace agreement, 
including robust enforcement mechanisms, grammatical clarity, reciprocal 
legitimacy and controlled flexibility of withstanding shifting political realities.}},
  author       = {{Carp, William}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Klar för krasch}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}