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Security or Suppression? State Deployment of Armed Forces and Electoral Violence in Nigeria (2011–2023)

Hänsch Mauritzson, Wera LU (2025) FKVK02 20251
Department of Political Science
Abstract
This thesis examines the relationship between state-led security deployments and electoral violence during Nigeria’s federal elections from 2011 to 2023. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines subnational quantitative data with qualitative document analysis. It assesses whether the presence of military and police forces reduces or exacerbates violence. While officially justified as preventive, these deployments prove to be highly context-dependent. In several high-risk states, heavy security presence correlated with significant violence, and was perceived by civil society as partisan or repressive. By contrast, elections in lower-risk states with limited deployment proceeded peacefully. The analysis draws on the theoretical... (More)
This thesis examines the relationship between state-led security deployments and electoral violence during Nigeria’s federal elections from 2011 to 2023. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines subnational quantitative data with qualitative document analysis. It assesses whether the presence of military and police forces reduces or exacerbates violence. While officially justified as preventive, these deployments prove to be highly context-dependent. In several high-risk states, heavy security presence correlated with significant violence, and was perceived by civil society as partisan or repressive. By contrast, elections in lower-risk states with limited deployment proceeded peacefully. The analysis draws on the theoretical distinction between strategic and reactive violence, as well as the perceived legitimacy of security actors. Findings suggest that when security forces are seen as biased, their presence may provoke rather than deter violence. The study concludes that deployments are not inherently stabilizing. Their effects hinge on timing, local dynamics and public trust. These results highlight the need for more accountable and context-sensitive approaches to electoral security in fragile democracies. (Less)
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author
Hänsch Mauritzson, Wera LU
supervisor
organization
course
FKVK02 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
electoral violence, Nigeria, state-led deployment, militarization, legitimacy, strategic violence, reactive violence, democratic governance, election security
language
English
id
9191146
date added to LUP
2025-08-08 11:24:00
date last changed
2025-08-08 11:24:00
@misc{9191146,
  abstract     = {{This thesis examines the relationship between state-led security deployments and electoral violence during Nigeria’s federal elections from 2011 to 2023. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines subnational quantitative data with qualitative document analysis. It assesses whether the presence of military and police forces reduces or exacerbates violence. While officially justified as preventive, these deployments prove to be highly context-dependent. In several high-risk states, heavy security presence correlated with significant violence, and was perceived by civil society as partisan or repressive. By contrast, elections in lower-risk states with limited deployment proceeded peacefully. The analysis draws on the theoretical distinction between strategic and reactive violence, as well as the perceived legitimacy of security actors. Findings suggest that when security forces are seen as biased, their presence may provoke rather than deter violence. The study concludes that deployments are not inherently stabilizing. Their effects hinge on timing, local dynamics and public trust. These results highlight the need for more accountable and context-sensitive approaches to electoral security in fragile democracies.}},
  author       = {{Hänsch Mauritzson, Wera}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Security or Suppression? State Deployment of Armed Forces and Electoral Violence in Nigeria (2011–2023)}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}