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The Effects of Being Dependent on Russia in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Karlsson, Klas LU (2025) FKVK02 20251
Department of Political Science
Abstract
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a protracted dispute between the states Armenia and Azerbaijan. This study develops a framework for how dependence on Russia affected the conflict outcome in 2020-2023. The framework explains the possible effects of an asymmetric relationship between the great power Russia and two weaker powers in Armenia and Azerbaijan while in a violent conflict. In the quantitative analysis, five variables of dependence are compiled into an assessment of the dependence on Russia. The assessment is then used in a qualitative process tracing method which divides the research question into three parts and introduces the term intervening variable. The research question is divided into: High/low dependence on Russia → The... (More)
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a protracted dispute between the states Armenia and Azerbaijan. This study develops a framework for how dependence on Russia affected the conflict outcome in 2020-2023. The framework explains the possible effects of an asymmetric relationship between the great power Russia and two weaker powers in Armenia and Azerbaijan while in a violent conflict. In the quantitative analysis, five variables of dependence are compiled into an assessment of the dependence on Russia. The assessment is then used in a qualitative process tracing method which divides the research question into three parts and introduces the term intervening variable. The research question is divided into: High/low dependence on Russia → The state’s room for action is reduced/increased→ Lack of support/support from Russia shifts the outcome of the conflict. Armenia’s dependence on Russia was assessed as high relative to Azerbaijan’s. The effects of dependence could be seen on Armenia aligning themselves more with Russian interests and not diversifying their military and economic support in the same way as Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was able to take control over Nagorno-Karabakh when Russian support failed Armenia. (Less)
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author
Karlsson, Klas LU
supervisor
organization
course
FKVK02 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Great power dependence, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
language
English
id
9191189
date added to LUP
2025-08-08 11:24:08
date last changed
2025-08-08 11:24:08
@misc{9191189,
  abstract     = {{The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a protracted dispute between the states Armenia and Azerbaijan. This study develops a framework for how dependence on Russia affected the conflict outcome in 2020-2023. The framework explains the possible effects of an asymmetric relationship between the great power Russia and two weaker powers in Armenia and Azerbaijan while in a violent conflict. In the quantitative analysis, five variables of dependence are compiled into an assessment of the dependence on Russia. The assessment is then used in a qualitative process tracing method which divides the research question into three parts and introduces the term intervening variable. The research question is divided into: High/low dependence on Russia → The state’s room for action is reduced/increased→ Lack of support/support from Russia shifts the outcome of the conflict. Armenia’s dependence on Russia was assessed as high relative to Azerbaijan’s. The effects of dependence could be seen on Armenia aligning themselves more with Russian interests and not diversifying their military and economic support in the same way as Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was able to take control over Nagorno-Karabakh when Russian support failed Armenia.}},
  author       = {{Karlsson, Klas}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Effects of Being Dependent on Russia in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}