The impact of the hybrid war with Ukraine on Russian export of services. A synthetic control approach.
(2025) NEKN01 20251Department of Economics
- Abstract
- The main goal of this thesis is to examine the causal effect of the hybrid war with Ukraine beginning from 2014 on Russian export of services towards its main services importers in Belarus, Kazakhstan, China, Cyprus, Switzerland, Germany, United States of America, United Kingdom, Türkiye in years 2006-2020 with the execeptions of 2010 and 2011 due to data limitations. This is done employing a sythetic control method based on a gravity model of trade specification. After performing a series of robustness checks I deem only the estimated effects in the pairs Russia-China and Russia-USA valid for interpretation – the obtained causal effect is positive and on average in post-treatment periods equal to 5.44% and 3.25% respectively. This is then... (More)
- The main goal of this thesis is to examine the causal effect of the hybrid war with Ukraine beginning from 2014 on Russian export of services towards its main services importers in Belarus, Kazakhstan, China, Cyprus, Switzerland, Germany, United States of America, United Kingdom, Türkiye in years 2006-2020 with the execeptions of 2010 and 2011 due to data limitations. This is done employing a sythetic control method based on a gravity model of trade specification. After performing a series of robustness checks I deem only the estimated effects in the pairs Russia-China and Russia-USA valid for interpretation – the obtained causal effect is positive and on average in post-treatment periods equal to 5.44% and 3.25% respectively. This is then confronted with findings from a baseline difference-in-difference model employing the same specification. Pairs containing Russia as the reporting country record – on average – with all other variables unchanged a decrease of 7.36pp compared to the treatment group – all other recorded pairs of countries. This indicates the increased reliance on already established, strong trade relationships with a relative contraction of export to other countries. These findings lay in direct opposition to findings presented in Rasoulinezhad (2019) and Abbas et al. (2023). Rasoulinezhad (2019) predicted a shift away from trade relationships with western countries that have imposed punitive sanctions on Russian Federation – such as the United States of America. Abbas et al. (2023) has stated that there exists an increasing incentive for Russia to diversify its portfolio of trade partners. Results obtained in my analysis, however ought to be solidified through an in-space placebo test and a leave-one-out robustness check that proved not to be computable given the size of the used dataset and the computational power at hand. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9194431
- author
- Jakubiak, Jakub LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- NEKN01 20251
- year
- 2025
- type
- H1 - Master's Degree (One Year)
- subject
- keywords
- Trade, Services, Synthetic Control Method, Hybrid war, Russia
- language
- English
- id
- 9194431
- date added to LUP
- 2025-09-12 09:59:24
- date last changed
- 2025-09-12 09:59:24
@misc{9194431,
abstract = {{The main goal of this thesis is to examine the causal effect of the hybrid war with Ukraine beginning from 2014 on Russian export of services towards its main services importers in Belarus, Kazakhstan, China, Cyprus, Switzerland, Germany, United States of America, United Kingdom, Türkiye in years 2006-2020 with the execeptions of 2010 and 2011 due to data limitations. This is done employing a sythetic control method based on a gravity model of trade specification. After performing a series of robustness checks I deem only the estimated effects in the pairs Russia-China and Russia-USA valid for interpretation – the obtained causal effect is positive and on average in post-treatment periods equal to 5.44% and 3.25% respectively. This is then confronted with findings from a baseline difference-in-difference model employing the same specification. Pairs containing Russia as the reporting country record – on average – with all other variables unchanged a decrease of 7.36pp compared to the treatment group – all other recorded pairs of countries. This indicates the increased reliance on already established, strong trade relationships with a relative contraction of export to other countries. These findings lay in direct opposition to findings presented in Rasoulinezhad (2019) and Abbas et al. (2023). Rasoulinezhad (2019) predicted a shift away from trade relationships with western countries that have imposed punitive sanctions on Russian Federation – such as the United States of America. Abbas et al. (2023) has stated that there exists an increasing incentive for Russia to diversify its portfolio of trade partners. Results obtained in my analysis, however ought to be solidified through an in-space placebo test and a leave-one-out robustness check that proved not to be computable given the size of the used dataset and the computational power at hand.}},
author = {{Jakubiak, Jakub}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{The impact of the hybrid war with Ukraine on Russian export of services. A synthetic control approach.}},
year = {{2025}},
}