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Produktivitet under klimatförändring - en ekonometrisk studie av jordbruket i Skåne

Andersson Hinz, Samuel LU (2025) NEKH02 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increasingly challenge agricultural systems worldwide, and
Sweden is no exception. Although agriculture represents a relatively small share of national
employment, it plays a critical role in food security, particularly in Skåne County, which
contains some of the country’s most productive farmland. This thesis investigates how
deviations from long-term average temperature and precipitation levels between 1997 and
2023 affect agricultural productivity and profitability across ten major crops cultivated in
Skåne. Using annual crop-level panel data from 1997 to 2023, combined with weather records
and economic production values, the study applies fixed effects panel regressions to estimate
both physical... (More)
Climate change is expected to increasingly challenge agricultural systems worldwide, and
Sweden is no exception. Although agriculture represents a relatively small share of national
employment, it plays a critical role in food security, particularly in Skåne County, which
contains some of the country’s most productive farmland. This thesis investigates how
deviations from long-term average temperature and precipitation levels between 1997 and
2023 affect agricultural productivity and profitability across ten major crops cultivated in
Skåne. Using annual crop-level panel data from 1997 to 2023, combined with weather records
and economic production values, the study applies fixed effects panel regressions to estimate
both physical yield effects in kilograms per hectare and economic outcomes in Swedish
kronor per hectare.The results show that years with precipitation levels deviating more than
±100 mm from the long-term average are associated with a statistically significant reduction
in both crop yield and economic value per hectare. This effect is most pronounced for oats,
which serves as the reference crop in the regression models. Average temperature deviations,
defined as more than ±1°C from the normal, do not exhibit significant aggregate effects, but
interaction models reveal substantial heterogeneity across crops. Potatoes for starch, sugar
beets and rye appear more resilient, and in some cases even show positive associations with
temperature deviations. By combining yield data with crop-specific economic values and
cultivated area, the study estimates the potential economic impact of climate variability. These
results underscore the importance of crop-specific climate adaptation strategies and suggest
which crops may be more or less viable under increasingly variable weather conditions. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Andersson Hinz, Samuel LU
supervisor
organization
alternative title
Productivity Under Climate Change – An Econometric Study of Agriculture in Skåne
course
NEKH02 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Climate Variability Agricultural Productivity Panel Data Regression
language
Swedish
id
9194868
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 09:14:44
date last changed
2025-09-12 09:14:44
@misc{9194868,
  abstract     = {{Climate change is expected to increasingly challenge agricultural systems worldwide, and
Sweden is no exception. Although agriculture represents a relatively small share of national
employment, it plays a critical role in food security, particularly in Skåne County, which
contains some of the country’s most productive farmland. This thesis investigates how
deviations from long-term average temperature and precipitation levels between 1997 and
2023 affect agricultural productivity and profitability across ten major crops cultivated in
Skåne. Using annual crop-level panel data from 1997 to 2023, combined with weather records
and economic production values, the study applies fixed effects panel regressions to estimate
both physical yield effects in kilograms per hectare and economic outcomes in Swedish
kronor per hectare.The results show that years with precipitation levels deviating more than
±100 mm from the long-term average are associated with a statistically significant reduction
in both crop yield and economic value per hectare. This effect is most pronounced for oats,
which serves as the reference crop in the regression models. Average temperature deviations,
defined as more than ±1°C from the normal, do not exhibit significant aggregate effects, but
interaction models reveal substantial heterogeneity across crops. Potatoes for starch, sugar
beets and rye appear more resilient, and in some cases even show positive associations with
temperature deviations. By combining yield data with crop-specific economic values and
cultivated area, the study estimates the potential economic impact of climate variability. These
results underscore the importance of crop-specific climate adaptation strategies and suggest
which crops may be more or less viable under increasingly variable weather conditions.}},
  author       = {{Andersson Hinz, Samuel}},
  language     = {{swe}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Produktivitet under klimatförändring - en ekonometrisk studie av jordbruket i Skåne}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}