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Winners and Losers: An empirical study on the employment effects of the 2018 tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration

Engvall, Nora LU (2025) NEKH02 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis investigates the mid-term employment effects of the 2018 U.S. tariff escalation under the first Trump administration. While the tariffs were introduced to protect domestic industries and “bring back jobs,” their actual labor market impacts remain uncertain. While previous research focuses on short-term effects or isolated industries, this thesis takes a broader perspective by examining three distinct groups: protected sectors, downstream industries reliant on imported inputs, and industries targeted by foreign retaliation. Using industry-level panel data from 2014 to 2023 and fixed effects regressions with lagged controls, the analysis provides a more nuanced assessment of employment effects within each group. The results show... (More)
This thesis investigates the mid-term employment effects of the 2018 U.S. tariff escalation under the first Trump administration. While the tariffs were introduced to protect domestic industries and “bring back jobs,” their actual labor market impacts remain uncertain. While previous research focuses on short-term effects or isolated industries, this thesis takes a broader perspective by examining three distinct groups: protected sectors, downstream industries reliant on imported inputs, and industries targeted by foreign retaliation. Using industry-level panel data from 2014 to 2023 and fixed effects regressions with lagged controls, the analysis provides a more nuanced assessment of employment effects within each group. The results show no statistically significant employment gains in protected sectors, but significant negative effects in downstream and retaliation-affected industries. These findings suggest that tariffs are an ineffective tool for promoting employment growth in a highly automated and globally integrated economy. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Engvall, Nora LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH02 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
Tariffs, Protectionism, Employment, Labour demand, Panel data, Fixed effects
language
English
id
9195118
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 09:15:32
date last changed
2025-09-12 09:15:32
@misc{9195118,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the mid-term employment effects of the 2018 U.S. tariff escalation under the first Trump administration. While the tariffs were introduced to protect domestic industries and “bring back jobs,” their actual labor market impacts remain uncertain. While previous research focuses on short-term effects or isolated industries, this thesis takes a broader perspective by examining three distinct groups: protected sectors, downstream industries reliant on imported inputs, and industries targeted by foreign retaliation. Using industry-level panel data from 2014 to 2023 and fixed effects regressions with lagged controls, the analysis provides a more nuanced assessment of employment effects within each group. The results show no statistically significant employment gains in protected sectors, but significant negative effects in downstream and retaliation-affected industries. These findings suggest that tariffs are an ineffective tool for promoting employment growth in a highly automated and globally integrated economy.}},
  author       = {{Engvall, Nora}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Winners and Losers: An empirical study on the employment effects of the 2018 tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}