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The Economic Cost of Political Retaliation: China's Informal Sanctions on Norwegian Salmon Exports

Kumar, Maansi LU (2025) NEKN01 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract (Swedish)
This thesis investigates the economic consequences of informal sanctions imposed by China on Norwegian salmon exports following the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Although no formal trade restrictions were announced, Norwegian salmon, a main export item, faced opaque import barriers that significantly disrupted trade flows. Using disaggregated product-level export data and a Difference-in-Differences framework, supported by Coarsened Exact Matching as a robustness check, this study estimates the causal effect of these informal sanctions. While the baseline DiD results do not yield statistically significant treatment effects, the event study analysis reveals a sharp, time-specific decline in salmon exports... (More)
This thesis investigates the economic consequences of informal sanctions imposed by China on Norwegian salmon exports following the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Although no formal trade restrictions were announced, Norwegian salmon, a main export item, faced opaque import barriers that significantly disrupted trade flows. Using disaggregated product-level export data and a Difference-in-Differences framework, supported by Coarsened Exact Matching as a robustness check, this study estimates the causal effect of these informal sanctions. While the baseline DiD results do not yield statistically significant treatment effects, the event study analysis reveals a sharp, time-specific decline in salmon exports after 2010, followed by a gradual normalization after 2016. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a politically motivated, product-specific disruption imposed informally by China. The study highlights the strategic use of informal economic measures in foreign policy and underscores the vulnerability of small, trade-dependent economies to coercive trade practices by larger powers. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Kumar, Maansi LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Informal Sanctions, Salmon exports, China-Norway trade, Economic coercion
language
English
id
9195545
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 09:59:53
date last changed
2025-09-12 09:59:53
@misc{9195545,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the economic consequences of informal sanctions imposed by China on Norwegian salmon exports following the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Although no formal trade restrictions were announced, Norwegian salmon, a main export item, faced opaque import barriers that significantly disrupted trade flows. Using disaggregated product-level export data and a Difference-in-Differences framework, supported by Coarsened Exact Matching as a robustness check, this study estimates the causal effect of these informal sanctions. While the baseline DiD results do not yield statistically significant treatment effects, the event study analysis reveals a sharp, time-specific decline in salmon exports after 2010, followed by a gradual normalization after 2016. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a politically motivated, product-specific disruption imposed informally by China. The study highlights the strategic use of informal economic measures in foreign policy and underscores the vulnerability of small, trade-dependent economies to coercive trade practices by larger powers.}},
  author       = {{Kumar, Maansi}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Economic Cost of Political Retaliation: China's Informal Sanctions on Norwegian Salmon Exports}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}