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Trams, an option for the future? Critical Analysis of the Lund Tramway’s Original Demand Forecast

Mercado Rojas, Luis Enrique LU and Fraholli, Amarda LU (2025) NEKN01 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis performs a critical evaluation of the original Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Lund tramway project, focusing on its adherence to the then-current Swedish national appraisal guidelines (ASEK 5) and the accuracy of its demand forecasts. An updated demand forecast and monetary valuation of time savings are constructed and compared to the original CBA projections by using empirical passenger data from Skånetrafiken (2016-2024). The observed passenger demand is four times lower than initially forecasted, and the monetary value of time savings is around seventeen times smaller than the original CBA. The differences in the results are due to discrepancies in key assumptions regarding trip purposes, alternative travel modes, and... (More)
This thesis performs a critical evaluation of the original Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Lund tramway project, focusing on its adherence to the then-current Swedish national appraisal guidelines (ASEK 5) and the accuracy of its demand forecasts. An updated demand forecast and monetary valuation of time savings are constructed and compared to the original CBA projections by using empirical passenger data from Skånetrafiken (2016-2024). The observed passenger demand is four times lower than initially forecasted, and the monetary value of time savings is around seventeen times smaller than the original CBA. The differences in the results are due to discrepancies in key assumptions regarding trip purposes, alternative travel modes, and demand distribution across different nodes. Limited documentation of key parameters in the original analysis makes it challenging to draw direct comparisons in the original CBA with our results, highlighting the importance of transparency. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Mercado Rojas, Luis Enrique LU and Fraholli, Amarda LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKN01 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Cost-Benefit Analysis, Transportation Economics, Tramway, Demand Forecast, Time Savings
language
English
id
9195873
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 10:00:15
date last changed
2025-09-12 10:00:15
@misc{9195873,
  abstract     = {{This thesis performs a critical evaluation of the original Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the Lund tramway project, focusing on its adherence to the then-current Swedish national appraisal guidelines (ASEK 5) and the accuracy of its demand forecasts. An updated demand forecast and monetary valuation of time savings are constructed and compared to the original CBA projections by using empirical passenger data from Skånetrafiken (2016-2024). The observed passenger demand is four times lower than initially forecasted, and the monetary value of time savings is around seventeen times smaller than the original CBA. The differences in the results are due to discrepancies in key assumptions regarding trip purposes, alternative travel modes, and demand distribution across different nodes. Limited documentation of key parameters in the original analysis makes it challenging to draw direct comparisons in the original CBA with our results, highlighting the importance of transparency.}},
  author       = {{Mercado Rojas, Luis Enrique and Fraholli, Amarda}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Trams, an option for the future? Critical Analysis of the Lund Tramway’s Original Demand Forecast}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}