A Scoping Review: Mapping the Climate-Conflict Nexus in the Arctic

Abstract

As climate change alters the geophysical conditions of the Arctic, foreign policymakers are increasingly looking towards the region as a new theatre of potential conflict or cooperation. This scoping review provides a comprehensive overview of the literature, integrating both academic and government resources, to determine how the discourse conceptualizes the climate-conflict nexus in the Arctic. It combines a descriptive and thematic discussion of peer-reviewed academic publications and government foreign policy publications, validating its results through interviews with subject-matter experts. In doing so, it provides a narrative account of the literature to determine the causes of and solutions to climate-induced conflict in the Arctic, while highlighting methodological and conceptual research gaps demanding attention. On one hand, it finds that climate change creates the geophysical conditions for limited conflict, exhibited through competition over resources and trade routes, confrontation over sovereignty and territories, and challenges to governance and legal frameworks in the region. On the other hand, it finds that a precedent for inter-state collaboration, coupled with resilient institutions and other enviro-political factors dissuading escalation, has averted serious conflict and maintained constructive engagement in regional affairs to date. This scoping review provides a balanced overview of the causes, solutions, and research gaps comprising the literature on the climate-conflict nexus in the Arctic. It offers researchers and practitioners a nuanced interpretation of narratives dominating the discourse and delivers insights into the foreign policy required to collectively address climate change and emerging geopolitics threatening to undermine peace and stability in the Arctic.

Popular Abstract

The Arctic is experiencing dramatic transformations caused by climate change, as receding sea ice introduces new economic, political, and military opportunities to be exploited. Increasing attention towards the region is raising concerns that climate change could create the conditions for conflict as states compete for dominance in this new theatre of international relations. This scoping review thus provides a balanced account of academic and government discourse to find that while climate change is altering the environmental factors of conflict, strong institutions and constructive inter-state engagement are holding up relative stability in the Arctic, for the present, at least.
Climate change is shifting the way academic and government experts view the Arctic. It is increasingly imagined as a region of potential conflict because receding sea ice is expected to expose vast stores of natural resources, open trade routes that may reshape world economics, and thaw longstanding disputes over territories and spheres of influence. This scoping review fills a gap in the literature by providing a narrative account of the current state of knowledge around the causes, solutions, and research gaps associated with climate-induced conflict in the Arctic.
This subject is important to study because it provides future research and policy with an informed foundation of knowledge to better conceptualize the complex geopolitical situation in the Arctic. It will therefore enable more effective foreign policy to address the greatest challenges of our time, brought about by climate change and the upheaval in global geopolitics.
Its results reveal a diversity of perspectives across academic and government discourse. First, it finds that while climate change is creating conditions that encourage conflict, states often engage in institutions and adopt practices that prioritize collective stability over more aggressive individual gains. Second, it finds that available foreign policy options that build on precedents of cooperation in the region could effectively mitigate and resolve sources of conflict raised by climate change and geopolitics. Third, it highlights research gaps that require attention to address outstanding questions on the future of regional affairs and to craft more tailored and appropriate foreign policy to maintain the delicate balance of security in the Arctic.
The scoping review is a methodology that maps existing literature to establish an overview of the current state of knowledge on a specific subject. In this case, it includes an analysis of both peer-reviewed academic articles and government foreign policy publications to determine how they conceptualize the causes of and solutions to climate-induced conflict in the Arctic. This process is followed by a series of interviews with subject-matter experts to validate results and construct a narrative account of the literature for knowledge users in the field.
The relationship between climate change and conflict is complex, particularly in the Arctic, and demands further attention as the region undergoes dramatic transformations. The results of this scoping review can be used by researchers and practitioners seeking a balanced overview of the climate-conflict nexus in the Arctic, as a starting point for future research to address its stated gaps, or for practice to advance foreign policy toward lasting peace and stability in the region.

• author: Krause, Kevin
• supervisor: Mo Hamza
• organization: Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
• course: VBRM15 20251
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Social Sciences
• keywords: Scoping Review, Arctic, Climate Change, Conflict, Natural Resources, Trade Routes, Sovereignty, Defence, Governance, Law, Energy Security, Environmental Security, National Security
• language: English
• id: 9196049
• date added to LUP: 2025-06-23 15:28:52
• date last changed: 2025-06-23 15:28:52