Exploring Interdependencies and Cascading Effects in Disaster Response Management for a 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake in Metro Manila, Philippines: A Socio-Technical Network Perspective
(2025) VBRM15 20251Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
- Abstract
- This study explores the interdependencies and cascading effects in the disaster response management for a possible 7.2 magnitude earthquake scenario in Metro Manila, focusing on the role of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) as the primary assisting region. The research is grounded in Complexity and Socio-Technical Network Theory, which provides that the disaster response management is a complex network comprising social (agencies, responders, etc.) and technical (critical infrastructures, communication systems, etc.) subnetworks that interact to achieve a common operational objectives. A Social Network Analysis (SNA) is employed as an analytical tool to understand the interactions and relationships of these subnetworks. Analysis... (More)
- This study explores the interdependencies and cascading effects in the disaster response management for a possible 7.2 magnitude earthquake scenario in Metro Manila, focusing on the role of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) as the primary assisting region. The research is grounded in Complexity and Socio-Technical Network Theory, which provides that the disaster response management is a complex network comprising social (agencies, responders, etc.) and technical (critical infrastructures, communication systems, etc.) subnetworks that interact to achieve a common operational objectives. A Social Network Analysis (SNA) is employed as an analytical tool to understand the interactions and relationships of these subnetworks. Analysis revealed the different strengths of interdependencies of different response agencies in the disaster response network. Likewise, the analysis also identified the CIs that play a key role during a response to a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. This research also contributes to the understanding of cascading effects by identifying potential pathways of cascading effects involving both social and technical subnetworks of the disaster response network: Agency → Agency → Agency, Agency → Critical Infrastructure → Agency, Critical Infrastructure → Agency → Agency, and Critical Infrastructure → Agency → Critical Infrastructure → Agency. These findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of social and technical subnetworks in the disaster response network. The research emphasizes the need for a systems-based approach to disaster preparedness and response planning, integrating interdependencies and cascading effects into risk assessments, exercises, and scenario planning, while strengthening cooperation with CI operators and mainstreaming knowledge on interdependencies in continuity planning and resource management. (Less)
- Popular Abstract
- How can interdependencies make or break disaster response management?
Responding to major disasters such as a possible 7.2-magnitude earthquake in Metro Manila requires more than distributing relief items. It requires coordinated efforts among various response agencies that depend on critical infrastructures (CIs). Disaster response management is characterized by interdependencies among agencies and CIs, enabling effective task allocation and meeting the needs of affected populations. However, what if these interdependencies cause cascading effects in the response network? These effects are like a domino effect; when one response agency or CI fails, it triggers a chain reaction of subsequent failures, amplifying the impact due to the... (More) - How can interdependencies make or break disaster response management?
Responding to major disasters such as a possible 7.2-magnitude earthquake in Metro Manila requires more than distributing relief items. It requires coordinated efforts among various response agencies that depend on critical infrastructures (CIs). Disaster response management is characterized by interdependencies among agencies and CIs, enabling effective task allocation and meeting the needs of affected populations. However, what if these interdependencies cause cascading effects in the response network? These effects are like a domino effect; when one response agency or CI fails, it triggers a chain reaction of subsequent failures, amplifying the impact due to the interconnectedness of these entities.
The study is based on complexity and socio-technical systems theory, explaining that disaster response is a complex network of social (response agencies, responders) and technical (CIs, communication systems) subnetworks that depend on each other to achieve operational objectives. Key informant interviews were conducted with various response agencies, along with the use of survey tools and analysis of disaster response plans. The collected data were used to create a disaster response network, which was then analyzed using social network analysis (SNA) to examine the interconnections among response agencies and CIs.
Analysis identified key actors and critical infrastructure, along with their interdependencies and potential cascading effects. The study revealed which response agencies hold central roles in the network, indicating which agencies are relied upon by many others, as well as those that depend on other agencies. This analysis is crucial for understanding that any disruption or challenge in coordinating and collaborating among these agencies can impact the effectiveness of their response. Furthermore, agencies that are highly central or heavily depended upon by other agencies are at risk of becoming single points of failure. Additionally, the study identified CIs that are vital for numerous response agencies and highlighted which response agencies are highly dependent on critical infrastructures. CIs including land and air transportation and several emergency response centers, are among the most critical in supporting operations during disasters.
This study expands beyond identifying response agencies and CIs in the disaster response network; it also examines their relationships and interdependencies and their impact on the system. While interdependencies can enhance resource efficiency and communication, they may also undermine the network due to cascading effects. Analysis identified potential cascading effects in four pathways: Agency → Agency → Agency, Agency → CI → Agency, CI → Agency → Agency, and CI → Agency → CI → Agency. These findings expand on previous studies that emphasize cascading effects within CI sectors, demonstrating that such effects can also emerge from response agencies and influence CIs, and vice versa.
These challenges are often overlooked by traditional risk assessments, which focus on risk identification and response structures. While preparedness plans outline resources and personnel, they lack guidance on mobilizing these resources to affected areas, considering factors like the functionality of CIs they depend on. Likewise, it also highlights the importance of understanding cascading effects, not only in the context of societal consequences but also within the disaster response system itself.
In the context of disaster preparedness and response planning, the study emphasizes the need for a systems-based approach by integrating interdependencies and cascading effects into risk assessments, resource management planning, and strengthening collaboration with CI operators. Integrating interdependencies and cascading effects is crucial for an effective and timely disaster response that can adapt to potential operational disruptions. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
http://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/record/9196165
- author
- Alamo Tamulto, Ferdinand LU
- supervisor
- organization
- course
- VBRM15 20251
- year
- 2025
- type
- H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
- subject
- keywords
- Interdependencies, Cascading Effects, Critical Infrastructures, Socio-Technical Network, Social Network Analysis, Disaster Response, Earthquake, Philippines
- language
- English
- additional info
- This research is supported by the Swedish Institute and a research travel grant from the Crafoord Foundation.
- id
- 9196165
- date added to LUP
- 2025-06-13 08:09:42
- date last changed
- 2025-06-13 08:09:42
@misc{9196165,
abstract = {{This study explores the interdependencies and cascading effects in the disaster response management for a possible 7.2 magnitude earthquake scenario in Metro Manila, focusing on the role of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) as the primary assisting region. The research is grounded in Complexity and Socio-Technical Network Theory, which provides that the disaster response management is a complex network comprising social (agencies, responders, etc.) and technical (critical infrastructures, communication systems, etc.) subnetworks that interact to achieve a common operational objectives. A Social Network Analysis (SNA) is employed as an analytical tool to understand the interactions and relationships of these subnetworks. Analysis revealed the different strengths of interdependencies of different response agencies in the disaster response network. Likewise, the analysis also identified the CIs that play a key role during a response to a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. This research also contributes to the understanding of cascading effects by identifying potential pathways of cascading effects involving both social and technical subnetworks of the disaster response network: Agency → Agency → Agency, Agency → Critical Infrastructure → Agency, Critical Infrastructure → Agency → Agency, and Critical Infrastructure → Agency → Critical Infrastructure → Agency. These findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of social and technical subnetworks in the disaster response network. The research emphasizes the need for a systems-based approach to disaster preparedness and response planning, integrating interdependencies and cascading effects into risk assessments, exercises, and scenario planning, while strengthening cooperation with CI operators and mainstreaming knowledge on interdependencies in continuity planning and resource management.}},
author = {{Alamo Tamulto, Ferdinand}},
language = {{eng}},
note = {{Student Paper}},
title = {{Exploring Interdependencies and Cascading Effects in Disaster Response Management for a 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake in Metro Manila, Philippines: A Socio-Technical Network Perspective}},
year = {{2025}},
}