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The indirect implications of a global trade war on the Swedish economy

Jansson Garmendia, Denis LU (2025) NEKH03 20251
Department of Economics
Abstract
This thesis investigates the economic impacts of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Sweden. Given that Sweden is a small, open economy deeply embedded in global supply chains, the study explores how external trade tensions influenced domestic consumer and producer welfare. Using monthly time series data from 2016 to 2022, the analysis focuses on key trade-related price indices (Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and Producer Price Index) alongside a derived metric, the Trade Price Differential, which captures the price gap between imports and exports. Results reveal how rising tariffs and disrupted supply chains pushed up import prices for Swedish firms while export prices remained flat, leading to a widened TPD. These disruptions... (More)
This thesis investigates the economic impacts of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Sweden. Given that Sweden is a small, open economy deeply embedded in global supply chains, the study explores how external trade tensions influenced domestic consumer and producer welfare. Using monthly time series data from 2016 to 2022, the analysis focuses on key trade-related price indices (Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and Producer Price Index) alongside a derived metric, the Trade Price Differential, which captures the price gap between imports and exports. Results reveal how rising tariffs and disrupted supply chains pushed up import prices for Swedish firms while export prices remained flat, leading to a widened TPD. These disruptions intensified during peak tariff rounds and persisted into the COVID-19 period, highlighting the vulnerability of globally integrated economies to external
trade shocks. The analysis confirms that even distant trade tensions can erode consumer purchasing power and destabilize production costs in highly connected economies. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Jansson Garmendia, Denis LU
supervisor
organization
course
NEKH03 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
keywords
trade war, welfare, tariffs, supply chains
language
English
id
9196391
date added to LUP
2025-09-12 09:20:35
date last changed
2025-09-12 09:20:35
@misc{9196391,
  abstract     = {{This thesis investigates the economic impacts of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Sweden. Given that Sweden is a small, open economy deeply embedded in global supply chains, the study explores how external trade tensions influenced domestic consumer and producer welfare. Using monthly time series data from 2016 to 2022, the analysis focuses on key trade-related price indices (Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and Producer Price Index) alongside a derived metric, the Trade Price Differential, which captures the price gap between imports and exports. Results reveal how rising tariffs and disrupted supply chains pushed up import prices for Swedish firms while export prices remained flat, leading to a widened TPD. These disruptions intensified during peak tariff rounds and persisted into the COVID-19 period, highlighting the vulnerability of globally integrated economies to external 
trade shocks. The analysis confirms that even distant trade tensions can erode consumer purchasing power and destabilize production costs in highly connected economies.}},
  author       = {{Jansson Garmendia, Denis}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The indirect implications of a global trade war on the Swedish economy}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}