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Polish terms-of-trade in the interwar period, 1924-1939

Popa, Dominik LU (2025) EOSK12 20251
Department of Economic History
Abstract
The terms-of-trade a country faces are the prices of its exports divided by the prices of its imports. While unassuming, they hold much theoretical importance, and have been consistently found to be strongly correlated with economic growth rates. This paper provides a novel, monthly terms-of-trade index series for interwar Poland, covering 1924-1939; investigates the underlying trade structure; and tests the correlations between terms-of-trade growth and volatility and GDP growth. The findings indicate that Poland faced an overall terms-of-trade growth of ca. one fourth over the whole period, better than most comparable countries; exhibited a relatively diversified trade structure; and, contrary to what theory predicts, that higher... (More)
The terms-of-trade a country faces are the prices of its exports divided by the prices of its imports. While unassuming, they hold much theoretical importance, and have been consistently found to be strongly correlated with economic growth rates. This paper provides a novel, monthly terms-of-trade index series for interwar Poland, covering 1924-1939; investigates the underlying trade structure; and tests the correlations between terms-of-trade growth and volatility and GDP growth. The findings indicate that Poland faced an overall terms-of-trade growth of ca. one fourth over the whole period, better than most comparable countries; exhibited a relatively diversified trade structure; and, contrary to what theory predicts, that higher terms-of-trade volatility was strongly and positively correlated with GDP growth. Overall, the results align with the recent tendency to reassess more positively the economic situation of CEE countries in the interwar period. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Popa, Dominik LU
supervisor
organization
course
EOSK12 20251
year
type
M2 - Bachelor Degree
subject
language
English
id
9199443
date added to LUP
2025-06-16 11:39:48
date last changed
2025-06-16 11:39:48
@misc{9199443,
  abstract     = {{The terms-of-trade a country faces are the prices of its exports divided by the prices of its imports. While unassuming, they hold much theoretical importance, and have been consistently found to be strongly correlated with economic growth rates. This paper provides a novel, monthly terms-of-trade index series for interwar Poland, covering 1924-1939; investigates the underlying trade structure; and tests the correlations between terms-of-trade growth and volatility and GDP growth. The findings indicate that Poland faced an overall terms-of-trade growth of ca. one fourth over the whole period, better than most comparable countries; exhibited a relatively diversified trade structure; and, contrary to what theory predicts, that higher terms-of-trade volatility was strongly and positively correlated with GDP growth. Overall, the results align with the recent tendency to reassess more positively the economic situation of CEE countries in the interwar period.}},
  author       = {{Popa, Dominik}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Polish terms-of-trade in the interwar period, 1924-1939}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}