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Heating Up? A Quantitative Study of Climate Attitude Polarisation in Sweden

Birging, Ellen LU (2025) SIMZ11 20251
Graduate School
Abstract
This thesis explores how climate change concern is polarised in Sweden, with the aim
to increase the understanding to detect social impediments to successful progress on
the issue, as well as to prevent conflictual divides. The thesis examines the
distribution of climate attitudes through three different forms of polarisation:
distributive opinion polarisation, group-based (opinion) polarisation, and affective
polarisation. The first two forms are accounted for over 20 years, from 2002 to 2022.
In addition, the concept of social media induced polarisation is applied by testing
whether consuming news on social media reinforces opinion polarisation or affective
polarisation. The thesis proceeds from the research question “How is... (More)
This thesis explores how climate change concern is polarised in Sweden, with the aim
to increase the understanding to detect social impediments to successful progress on
the issue, as well as to prevent conflictual divides. The thesis examines the
distribution of climate attitudes through three different forms of polarisation:
distributive opinion polarisation, group-based (opinion) polarisation, and affective
polarisation. The first two forms are accounted for over 20 years, from 2002 to 2022.
In addition, the concept of social media induced polarisation is applied by testing
whether consuming news on social media reinforces opinion polarisation or affective
polarisation. The thesis proceeds from the research question “How is climate change
concern polarised in Sweden?”, supported by six sub-questions. The theoretical
frameworks used are the social identity approach, and environmental justice theory.
The research questions are answered through statistical analyses of survey data from
the SOM Institute, applying the Van der Eijk Agreement Index, conducting an OLS
regression with time as an interaction effect, as well as three different multinomial
logistic regressions. The findings are that, over 20 years, Sweden displays an
increasing consensus on climate concerns, concentrated around more worried values.
Moreover, women, people with higher education, and politically left-wing have
higher concern, and the effects of education and political affiliation have increased
with time while the effect of sex has decreased. In addition, there is an element of
affective polarisation connected to the same group patterns as in the opinion
polarisation, however, higher education stands out as leading to higher concern but
not associated with affective attitudes. Finally, it is not found that news consumption
on social media reinforces either opinion polarisation or affective polarisation. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Birging, Ellen LU
supervisor
organization
course
SIMZ11 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Climate change, distributive opinion polarisation, group polarisation, affective polarisation, social media induced polarisation, social identity, environmental justice
language
English
id
9199532
date added to LUP
2025-06-27 12:44:00
date last changed
2025-06-27 12:44:00
@misc{9199532,
  abstract     = {{This thesis explores how climate change concern is polarised in Sweden, with the aim
to increase the understanding to detect social impediments to successful progress on
the issue, as well as to prevent conflictual divides. The thesis examines the
distribution of climate attitudes through three different forms of polarisation:
distributive opinion polarisation, group-based (opinion) polarisation, and affective
polarisation. The first two forms are accounted for over 20 years, from 2002 to 2022.
In addition, the concept of social media induced polarisation is applied by testing
whether consuming news on social media reinforces opinion polarisation or affective
polarisation. The thesis proceeds from the research question “How is climate change
concern polarised in Sweden?”, supported by six sub-questions. The theoretical
frameworks used are the social identity approach, and environmental justice theory.
The research questions are answered through statistical analyses of survey data from
the SOM Institute, applying the Van der Eijk Agreement Index, conducting an OLS
regression with time as an interaction effect, as well as three different multinomial
logistic regressions. The findings are that, over 20 years, Sweden displays an
increasing consensus on climate concerns, concentrated around more worried values.
Moreover, women, people with higher education, and politically left-wing have
higher concern, and the effects of education and political affiliation have increased
with time while the effect of sex has decreased. In addition, there is an element of
affective polarisation connected to the same group patterns as in the opinion
polarisation, however, higher education stands out as leading to higher concern but
not associated with affective attitudes. Finally, it is not found that news consumption
on social media reinforces either opinion polarisation or affective polarisation.}},
  author       = {{Birging, Ellen}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{Heating Up? A Quantitative Study of Climate Attitude Polarisation in Sweden}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}