A Study on the Linear Optimisation of eSAF Production in the Netherlands

Abstract

The aviation industry continues today to be one of the main sources of green house gas emission. In order to counteract this trend, certain solutions are being invested in with one of these being the use of electro-based sustainable aviation fuels. Its drop-in ability and potential for reduction in emissions present eSAF as one of the most attractive and viable alternatives to decarbonisation of the aviation sector. This study aims to establish the current landscape of the adoption of eSAF and to investigate the techno-economic feasibility of eSAF production based within the EU. Furthermore, by leveraging priced driven optimisation, a realistic price point for eSAF is to be determined. The use of linear programming has been used to help model three specific production alternatives using a current eSAF development project driven by Power2X in the port of Rotterdam as a basis. One of these scenarios models the similar business strategy currently planned by Power2X, importing green hydrogen and methanol to a Methanol-to-Jet production facility. Next scenario contrasts the use of importing feedstock and looks at modelling a facility which includes all stages of the eSAF production chain, including on-site processes such as electrolysis, methanol synthesis, and Methanol-to-Jet. The scenario optimises its production volumes in relation to varying electricity prices of renewables from the grid. Scenario
three is likened to scenario two with on-site production, but is only supplied with power from renewable energy sources. The results show that despite the optimisation through varying production, the levelised cost of eSAF between the three scenarios is most advantageous through the Power2X import strategy with a levelised cost of eSAF at 2875 EUR/tonne. The price driven optimisation derived a non-subsidised selling price of 4772 EUR/tonne eSAF, which aligns with the current expected eSAF price, assumed to be 5-8 times the prices of conventional aviation fuel.

Popular Abstract

Flying Green: Optimizing the Future of Aviation Fuel in the Netherlands
Aviation is hard to decarbonize, but electro-based jet fuel offers a promising path. This thesis explores the production of this fuel by developing a model to optimize its production strategies.
The aviation industry is one of the largest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, and yet one of the hardest sectors to decarbonize. While electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft are promising, they face challenges in range and infrastructure which requires time to be fully utilized. In the meantime, electro-based Sustainable Aviation Fuels (eSAF) offer a drop-in solution, they work with existing aircraft engines and have the potential to drastically reduce emissions and accelerate the decarbonization of the sector.
This master thesis, conducted at Lund University, explores how to optimize the operations of eSAF production. The study is based on a planned large-scale eSAF facility in Rotterdam by the company Power2X, and compares three different production scenarios using a custom-built linear programming model grounded in the facility’s specifications. The cases include, the Company Case, where green hydrogen and methanol are imported from regions with lower electricity prices and converted into eSAF locally. The two other cases explore full domestic on-site production of hydrogen and methanol using renewable electricity and biogenic CO₂, one using a hybrid setup with both grid electricity and dedicated renewables, and the other relying exclusively on local renewable sources. The study also looked at optimising the storage of produced products and the use of varying delivery periods to try and further optimize the eSAF production chain which showcased low impact.
The findings? The study calculated a realistic eSAF price of €4,772 per tonne. Importing green feedstocks of methanol and hydrogen is currently the most cost-effective option and has the potential to accelerate eSAF deployment and lower its selling price. However, it relies on securing cheap methanol and reliant transport logistics. The full domestic production chain is still too expensive to compete due to high electricity prices and technology costs, but its competitiveness will increase with expected decreasing electrolyser investment cost.

• author: Bengtsson, Elias and Broström, Didrik
• supervisor: Diamantis Almpantis; Martin Andersson
• organization: Department of Energy Sciences
• alternative title: En Studie om Linjär Optimering av eSAF-produktion i Nederländerna
• course: MVKM01 20251
• year: 2025
• type: H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
• subject: Technology and Engineering
• keywords: eSAF, SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, Methanol-to-Jet, Methanol-to-Kerosene, Linear Optimisation, Energy Systems Modelling, Techno-Economic Analysis
• report number: ISRN LUTMDN/TMPH-25/5641-SE
• ISSN: 0282-1990
• language: English
• id: 9202116
• date added to LUP: 2025-06-19 08:44:38
• date last changed: 2025-06-19 08:44:38