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The Changing Role of Economic Shocks in Spain’s Fertility Decline (1977–2024)

Vara, Antonio LU (2025) EKHS42 20251
Department of Economic History
Abstract
This thesis explores how the relationship between economic shocks and fertility rates has
evolved in Spain from 1977 to 2024, using regional panel data across the country’s 17
autonomous communities. The analysis applies two-way fixed effects models to assess
whether the impact of economic variables, particularly unemployment, has diminished
over time, as demographic and cultural factors have gained prominence
By the usage of two-way fixed effects models this research revealsthe limited explanatory
power of economic shocks once regional and temporal controls are introduced. Instead,
demographic composition, especially the share of women aged 20–29 and the rural
population, emerges as a more consistent determinant of fertility.
The... (More)
This thesis explores how the relationship between economic shocks and fertility rates has
evolved in Spain from 1977 to 2024, using regional panel data across the country’s 17
autonomous communities. The analysis applies two-way fixed effects models to assess
whether the impact of economic variables, particularly unemployment, has diminished
over time, as demographic and cultural factors have gained prominence
By the usage of two-way fixed effects models this research revealsthe limited explanatory
power of economic shocks once regional and temporal controls are introduced. Instead,
demographic composition, especially the share of women aged 20–29 and the rural
population, emerges as a more consistent determinant of fertility.
The findings challenge traditional economic theories of fertility and support demographic
explanations for the decline in fertility rates. Though not conclusive, the study emphasizes
the need for regionally targeted policies and further research into cultural and
demographic influences on fertility. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
Vara, Antonio LU
supervisor
organization
course
EKHS42 20251
year
type
H2 - Master's Degree (Two Years)
subject
keywords
Economics, Econometrics, Fertility, Unemployment, Regional study, Spain
language
English
id
9202949
date added to LUP
2025-08-25 08:38:58
date last changed
2025-08-25 08:38:58
@misc{9202949,
  abstract     = {{This thesis explores how the relationship between economic shocks and fertility rates has
evolved in Spain from 1977 to 2024, using regional panel data across the country’s 17
autonomous communities. The analysis applies two-way fixed effects models to assess
whether the impact of economic variables, particularly unemployment, has diminished
over time, as demographic and cultural factors have gained prominence
By the usage of two-way fixed effects models this research revealsthe limited explanatory
power of economic shocks once regional and temporal controls are introduced. Instead,
demographic composition, especially the share of women aged 20–29 and the rural
population, emerges as a more consistent determinant of fertility.
The findings challenge traditional economic theories of fertility and support demographic
explanations for the decline in fertility rates. Though not conclusive, the study emphasizes
the need for regionally targeted policies and further research into cultural and
demographic influences on fertility.}},
  author       = {{Vara, Antonio}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  note         = {{Student Paper}},
  title        = {{The Changing Role of Economic Shocks in Spain’s Fertility Decline (1977–2024)}},
  year         = {{2025}},
}